An inventory-based approach for modeling single-tree storm damage — experiences with the winter storm of 1999 in southwestern Germany

Schmidt, Matthias; Hanewinkel, Marc; Kändler, Gerald; Kublin, Edgar; Kohnle, Ulrich

doi:10.1139/x10-099

Cited by 133 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…CDBDRs can be used to assess the stability of individual trees and stands because trees with larger CDBDR would be relatively weaker against the external forces (e.g. wind-blow, icing) (Schmidt et al 2010). The CDBDR may have various management implications such as determining spacing, stand basal area, stocking and thinning regimes, and planning appropriate species mixture (Hemery et al 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling tree crown-to-bole diameter ratio for Norway spruce and European beech

Sharma¹,

Vacek²,

Vacek³

2017

Silva Fenn.

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Highlights• Modelled crown-to-bole diameter ratio (CDBDR) using tree and stand-level predictors, and sample plot random effects.• Spatially explicit mixed-effects model described the largest part of CDBDR variation with no significant trend in the residuals.• The CDBDR increased with increasing stand development stage and site quality, but decreased with decreasing proportion of the species of interest, and increasing competition. AbstractCrown dimensions are correlated to growth of other parts of a tree and often used as predictors in growth models. The crown-to-bole diameter ratio (CDBDR), which is a ratio of maximum crown width to diameter at breast height (DBH), was modelled using data from permanent sample plots located on Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands in different parts of the Czech Republic. Among various tree and stand-level measures evaluated, DBH, height to crown base (HCB), dominant height (HDOM), basal area of trees larger in diameter than a subject tree (BAL), basal area proportion of the species of interest (BAPOR), and Hegyi's competition index (CI) were found to be significant predictors in the CDBDR model. Random effects were included using the mixed-effects modelling to describe sample plot-level variation. For each species, the mixed-effects model described a larger part of the variation of the CDBDR than nonlinear ordinary least squares model with no trend in the residuals. The spatially explicit mixed-effects model showed more attractive fit statistics [conditional R 2 ≈ 0.73 (spruce), 0.78 (beech)] than its spatially inexplicit counterpart [conditional R 2 ≈ 0.71 (spruce), 0.76 (beech)]. The model showed that CDBDR increased with increasing HDOM -a measure that combines the stand development stage and site quality -but decreased with increasing HCB and competition (increasing BAL and CI), and decreasing proportions of the species of interest (increasing BAPOR). For both species, the spatially explicit mixed-effects model should be a preferred choice for a precise prediction of the CDBDR. The CDBDR model will have various management implications such as determination of spacing, stand basal area, stocking, and planning of appropriate species mixture.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling tree crown-to-bole diameter ratio for Norway spruce and European beech

Sharma¹,

Vacek²,

Vacek³

2017

Silva Fenn.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Due to the use of clone-trees, it is unlikely that a target population disappears in the model. A recent approach for the improvement of growth models is the inclusion of calamities, such as infestation by bark beetles (Overbeck and Schmidt 2012) or windstorms (Schmidt et al 2010). Moreover, new approaches for modelling height growth exist.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A three-phase sampling procedure for continuous forest inventory with partial re-measurement and updating of terrestrial sample plots

2012

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For a current inventory using double sampling for stratification with a reduced second-phase sample size, compared with a previous inventory, we develop a threephase sampling procedure that exploits plot data from the previous inventory or their updates based on a growth model to increase precision. The three-phase procedure combines double sampling for stratification with a twophase regression estimator within strata. We consider sampling from an infinite population in the first phase. The combined estimator is tested in a case study using data from two consecutive inventories in four State Forest Districts in Lower Saxony, Germany. Data from a reduced number of sample plots from the second occasion are combined with (1) volumes from the first occasion or (2) growth simulations on the sample plots from the first occasion. The data from the previous inventory or their updates serve as the auxiliary variable for the regression estimator of the strata means of the target variable. This case study indicates a remarkable increase in precision and thereby an enormous cost-saving potential for reduced intermediate inventories in a periodic inventory design with both types of auxiliary variables.

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“…Based on findings from previous studies, it is plausible that variables like tree height [24,47,48], tree species [20,48] or forest management [18,48] are important predictor variables for damage occurrence as well. However, these variables were not available at the landscape scale.…”

Section: Damage Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Routinely collected booking records of salvaged timber from the period 1979-2008 were used to empirically model the (1) storm damage probability; (2) proportions of storm-damaged timber and (3) endemic storm damage risk in the forest area of the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg by applying random forests. Results from cross-validated predictor importance evaluation demonstrate that the relative impact of modeled gust speed fields on the predictive accuracy of the random forests models was greatest compared to the impact of forest and soil features. Forest areas prone to storm damage occurring within a period of five years were mainly located in mountainous upland regions where maximum gust speed exceeds 31 m/s in a five-year return period and conifers dominate the tree species composition. While mean storm damage probability continuously increased with increasing statistical gust speed proportions of storm-damaged timber peaked at a statistical maximum gust speed value of 29 m/s occurring in a five-year return period. Combining the statistical gust speed field with daily gust speed fields of two exceptional winter storms improved model accuracy and considerably increased the explained variance. Endemic storm damage risk was calculated from endemic storm damage probability and proportions of endemically storm-damaged timber. In combination with knowledge of local experts the storm damage risk modeled in a 50 mˆ50 m resolution raster dataset can easily be used to identify areas prone to storm damage and to adapt silvicultural management regimes to make forests more windfirm.

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An inventory-based approach for modeling single-tree storm damage — experiences with the winter storm of 1999 in southwestern Germany

Cited by 133 publications

References 29 publications

Modelling tree crown-to-bole diameter ratio for Norway spruce and European beech

Modelling tree crown-to-bole diameter ratio for Norway spruce and European beech

A three-phase sampling procedure for continuous forest inventory with partial re-measurement and updating of terrestrial sample plots

The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany

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