An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China

Abstract

Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).

The Science Underlying COVID-19

“…Contact tracing based on accurate and rapid diagnostic tests will be necessary. When deployed effectively, these measures can avert hundreds of thousands of cases 17 .…”

Discrimination and Social Exclusion in the Outbreak of COVID-19

“…Since scientists confirmed the possibility of person-to-person transmission [3,4], massive efforts have been undertaken to isolate confirmed and suspected cases from the public. In particular, as learned from previous experiences in controlling the spread of SARS, the lockdown approach was widely applied, and has now been proven for its effectiveness in controlling transmission [5]. While these efforts are designed to limit further infection, instances of discrimination (Here, we take the general definition of discrimination to refer to unjust treatment or making a distinction against a person based on group, class, race, age, sex or category to which that person belongs rather than on individual merit.)…”

Rapid implementation of an evidence‐based remote triaging system for assessment of suspected referrals and patients with head and neck cancer on follow‐up after treatment during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Model for international collaboration

“…1 The Wuhan shutdown delayed the occurrence of the first case of SARS-CoV-2 in other cities by 2.91 days (95% confidence interval: 2.54-3.29 days), an intervention that benefited >130 cities in mainland China, covering more than half its geographic area. 24 Social distancing measures are also a key component of the control strategies during pandemics and form one of the most effective techniques in reducing the number of infections. It is also vital that social distancing and travel restrictions are not lifted prematurely while there is a pool of susceptible hosts in the population, as this will lead to an increase in the number of infections.…”