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RUNNING HEAD: COGNITIVE REFLECTION AND REAL-LIFE DECISIONSCognitive reflection predicts real-life decision outcomes, but not over and above personality and decision-making styles.Complete reference: Juanchich, M., Dewberry, C., Sirota, M., and Narendran, S. Sunitha Narendran is Head of the Department of Management at Kingston University. Her research interests include personality and individual differences, decision making styles and decision making competence.Pre-publication version of the article. The published version can be found here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1875/full 4
Acknowledgement:We are very grateful to anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and advice on previous versions of this manuscript.Pre-publication version of the article. The published version can be found here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1875/full 5
AbstractThe Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), designed to assess the ability to inhibit intuition to process a problem analytically, predicts people's performance in many normative judgment and decision-making tasks (e.g., Bayesian reasoning, conjunction fallacy, ratio bias).However, how the CRT predicts normative decision-making performance is unclear, and little is known about the extent to which the CRT predicts real-life decision outcomes. We investigate the role of the CRT in predicting real-life decision outcomes and examine whether the CRT predicts real-life decision outcomes after controlling for two related individual differences: the Big Five personality traits and decision-making styles. Our results show that greater CRT scores predict positive real-life decision outcomes measured by the Decision Outcome Inventory. However, the effect size was small, and the relationship became nonsignificant after statistically controlling for personality and decision-making styles. We discuss the limited predictive role of cognitive reflection in real-life decision-making outcomes, along with the roles of personality and decision-making styles.Key words: cognitive reflection, decision outcome, decision-making styles, personality, individual differences.Pre-publication version of the article. The published version can be found here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1875/full 6 Introduction Three factors determine decision-making quality: the nature of the decision, the situation in which the decision is made, and the characteristics of the decision-maker (Einhorn, 1970; Hunt, Krzystofiak, Meindl, & Yousry, 1989). The influence of the characteristics of the decision-maker have primarily been investigated in relation to normative decision-making performance, and hence have aimed to assess the characteristics that predict compliance with normative decision-making principles derived from logical or theoretical models (e.g. the extensionality principle in the framing task, expected utility theory in the time preference task, Bayesian theorem in the Bayesian reasoning task). Currently, one of the key predictors of normative decision-mak...