An MCMC based Bayesian inference approach to parameter estimation of distributed lag models for forecasting used product returns for remanufacturing

Geda, M. W.; Kwong, C. K.

doi:10.1007/s13243-020-00099-3

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…More recently, Zhang et al [15] developed two models in which an OEM produces new products, but outsources remanufacturing operations to authorized remanufacturers, and suggested that, if the collection cost coefficient is not pronounced, an aggressive response by the OEM can effectively minimize the cannibalization problems, but will reduce the profitability for the OEM. However, Geda and Kwong [16] empirically forecasted the quantity and timing of used product returns, representing one of the major challenges faced by remanufacturers based on past sales data. As mentioned earlier, in recent decades, remanufacturing has gained much attention and been well studied from theoretical (see, e.g., [15]) and empirical perspectives (see, e.g., [17]).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[23], Zhang et al [15], Geda and Kwong [16] be noted that, if the remanufacturer undertakes the remanufacturing without OEM licensing, it may face serious legal action from the latter. For example, Lexmark sent a letter to independent remanufacturers and stated that they would face legal action if they remanufactured its cartridges without a license.…”

Section: Problem Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In spite of the fact that there is numerous literature highlighting the interchangeable design between different product lines (see, e.g., [13,14]), their results on interchangeable design that consider cannibalization problems between high-and low-end products do not immediately extend to the interchangeable design involved in the remanufacturing context. On the other hand, in recent decades, whilst remanufacturing has gained much attention and been well studied from theoretical and empirical perspectives (see, e.g., [15,16]), this study provides insights on how the economic, environmental, and social benefits of remanufacturing depend on the OEM's strategic choice of interchangeable design, when remanufacturing is undertaken in-house or outsourced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[5], Stanton et al[17]，Joshi et al[18], Afrin et al[13] √ ✗ Majumder and Groenevelt[20], Shi[21], Li et al[22], Han et al[23], Zhang et al[15], Geda and Kwong[16] …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Revenue and Cannibalization: The Effect of Interchangeable Design Confronted Remanufacturing Processing

Chen

Sun

2021

Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Traditional wisdom suggests that the interchangeable design in process system engineering, such as modularity or commonality design, can lower the manufacturing cost and act as a revenue driver. Moreover, the interchangeable design will be efficient in both assembling for new production and disassembling for remanufacturing. As such, interchangeable design confronted remanufacturing processing often involves a balance of revenue from cost drivers and cannibalization effects from remanufacturing. Therefore, this paper studies how the original equipment manufacturers’ (OEMs’) interchangeable design impacts the remanufacturing decisions, as well as the economy and environment. Specifically, we develop two theoretical models, in which an OEM makes a strategic choice relating to design interchangeability when the remanufacturing operations are undertaken by itself (Model O) or outsourced to third-party remanufacturers (Model T). This study finds that, although the optimal level of interchangeability related to the product design in Model T is lower than that in Model O, the optimal quantity of remanufactured products in the latter scenario is always higher. This suggests that remanufacturing outsourcing deters the OEM’s strategic choice on design interchangeability, which may be consistent with the fact that Lexmark makes its products less interchangeable to avoid remanufacturing from third-party remanufacturers (TPRs). Conversely, although the OEM is always less likely to outsource its remanufacturing operations to independent remanufacturers, remanufacturing outsourcing may be more beneficial for the environment, industry, and society. These key insights on the environmental groups or agencies suggest that remanufacturing outsourcing may be more beneficial for the environment, industry, and society and depends on the OEMs’ attitudes towards its profitability loss. Furthermore, to eliminate the above contrasting effects between the OEMs’ profitability and other issues, two possible remedies, including a revenue-sharing contract and subsidy-incentive mechanism, are provided to achieve a “win-win” situation.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Problem Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[5], Stanton et al[17]，Joshi et al[18], Afrin et al[13] √ ✗ Majumder and Groenevelt[20], Shi[21], Li et al[22], Han et al[23], Zhang et al[15], Geda and Kwong[16] …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Revenue and Cannibalization: The Effect of Interchangeable Design Confronted Remanufacturing Processing

Chen

Sun

2021

Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Fey and Jain (1982) suggested the estimation of a sequence of AR models, beginning with one lag and continuing with a higher orders of AR process until the likelihood function for a given sample attains a maximum, however the resulting model was over-specified in the order of AR process. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models were used in fields other than economics; Nothdurft and Engel, (2020) have used it to evaluate the effects of species mixing on productivity and climate-related resistance via tree-ring width measurements from sample cores; Hierarchical Distributed-Lag Models have been used by Baek et al ( 2020) to exploring varying geographic scale and magnitude in associations between the built environment and health; Geda and Kwong (2021) have used Bayesian inference approach to parameter estimation of distributed lag models for forecasting used product returns for remanufacturing. Heaton and Peng (2012) Belloumi (2013) applied The ARDL model to study the relationship between trade, FDI and economic growth in Tunisia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple and Instantaneous Causality in A Multivariate Auto-Regressive Models: An Application On Some Monetary Variables of the Egyptian Economy

الهادى¹,

حجازي²

2021

مجلة البحوث المالیة والتجاریة

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Granger`s (1969) concept and definitions of causality, feedback, and instantaneous causality and Akaike final prediction error criterion and extended by Chan (1982) to fit a multivariate autoregressive model are used. The objective of the paper is to distinguish between simple, feedback and instantaneous causality. The notion of feedback between endogenous and exogenous variables in the bivariate AR model and its extension to the tri-variate AR models are presented. As an application to these causality notions, the paper aimed to reach the optimal lag structure in forecasting some monetary variables in the Egyptian economy from Q12005 to Q42018. Variables selected were "current deposits of local currency", "loan totals" and "quasi-money". The three variables were correlated, and each variable was used as an endogenous function of itself lagged and the other two variables as exogeneous. The study also aimed to test if prediction is improved if current values and previous values are used in the prediction equation. The simple causal model showed that a) "current deposits" is best predicted lagged 7, lag one for "Total Loans", and current value of " Quasi-Money"; b) "Total Loans" is best predicted using " Current deposit`s" current value, "Total Loans" lagged 6,, and " Quasi-Money" lagged 1; and c) "current Quasi-Money" is best predicted from the current value of " Current Deposits" and "Total Loans", and from " Quasi-Money" lagged 4. The instantaneous causal model showed that : a) "current deposits" is best predicted lagged 7, current values for "Total Loans", and current value of " Quasi-Money"; b) "Total Loans" is best predicted using " Current deposit`s" current value, "Total Loans" lagged 6,, and current value of " Quasi-Money"; and c) "current Quasi-Money" is best predicted from the " Current Deposits" lagged 2, and "Total Loans", lagged 1 and from " Quasi-Money" lagged 4.. The analysis showed that a one-way simple causal model exists from "loans total" to "current deposits of local currency", and from "quasi-money" to "loans total". Instantaneous causality and feedback occur between the three variables.

show abstract

Forward cycle time distributions for returnable transport items

Cobb

2021

Jnl Remanufactur

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An MCMC based Bayesian inference approach to parameter estimation of distributed lag models for forecasting used product returns for remanufacturing

Cited by 4 publications

References 24 publications

Revenue and Cannibalization: The Effect of Interchangeable Design Confronted Remanufacturing Processing

Revenue and Cannibalization: The Effect of Interchangeable Design Confronted Remanufacturing Processing

Simple and Instantaneous Causality in A Multivariate Auto-Regressive Models: An Application On Some Monetary Variables of the Egyptian Economy

Forward cycle time distributions for returnable transport items

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About