Abstract. Questions about how emissions are changing during the COVID-19
lockdown periods cannot be answered by observations of atmospheric trace gas
concentrations alone, in part due to simultaneous changes in atmospheric
transport, emissions, dynamics, photochemistry, and chemical feedback. A
chemical transport model simulation benefiting from a multi-species
inversion framework using well-characterized observations should
differentiate those influences enabling to closely examine changes in
emissions. Accordingly, we jointly constrain NOx and VOC emissions
using well-characterized TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) HCHO and NO2 columns during the months
of March, April, and May 2020 (lockdown) and 2019 (baseline). We observe a
noticeable decline in the magnitude of NOx emissions in March 2020
(14 %–31 %) in several major cities including Paris, London, Madrid, and
Milan, expanding further to Rome, Brussels, Frankfurt, Warsaw, Belgrade,
Kyiv, and Moscow (34 %–51 %) in April. However, NOx emissions remain at
somewhat similar values or even higher in some portions of the UK, Poland,
and Moscow in March 2020 compared to the baseline, possibly due to the
timeline of restrictions. Comparisons against surface monitoring stations
indicate that the constrained model underrepresents the reduction in surface
NO2. This underrepresentation correlates with the TROPOMI frequency
impacted by cloudiness. During the month of April, when ample TROPOMI
samples are present, the surface NO2 reductions occurring in polluted
areas are described fairly well by the model (model: −21 ± 17 %,
observation: −29 ± 21 %). The observational constraint on VOC
emissions is found to be generally weak except for lower latitudes. Results
support an increase in surface ozone during the lockdown. In April, the
constrained model features a reasonable agreement with maximum daily 8 h
average (MDA8) ozone changes observed at the surface (r=0.43), specifically
over central Europe where ozone enhancements prevail (model: +3.73 ± 3.94 %, +1.79 ppbv,
observation: +7.35 ± 11.27 %, +3.76 ppbv). The model suggests that physical processes (dry deposition,
advection, and diffusion) decrease MDA8 surface ozone in the same month on
average by −4.83 ppbv, while ozone production rates dampened by largely
negative JNO2[NO2]-kNO+O3[NO][O3] become less negative,
leading ozone to increase by +5.89 ppbv. Experiments involving fixed
anthropogenic emissions suggest that meteorology contributes to 42 %
enhancement in MDA8 surface ozone over the same region with the remaining
part (58 %) coming from changes in anthropogenic emissions. Results
illustrate the capability of satellite data of major ozone precursors to
help atmospheric models capture ozone changes induced by abrupt emission
anomalies.