An operational forecast system for wind conditions in the Portuguese pilot area of Aguçadoura

Salvação, N.; Soares, C

doi:10.1201/b18973-34

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…This model is a physical meteorological model with fully compressible nonhydrostatic equations developed by National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and NCEP, and is used not only for real-time numerical weather forecasting (e.g. Salvação and Guedes Soares 23) ) but also for researches with idealized conditions, data assimilation, and others (e.g. Pryor et al 24) ).…”

Section: Solar Irradiance Forecasting With a Weather Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar irradiance prediction in the tropics using a weather forecasting model

Chinnavornrungsee,

Kittisontirak,

Chollacoop

et al. 2023

Jpn. J. Appl. Phys.

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Prediction of photovoltaic (PV) system generations is a powerful tool for managing the electric grids with multiple PV systems for reducing the instability of their electricity supply. For the prediction, weather and solar irradiance forecasting using a numerical meteorological model are performed in this study. The target country is Thailand which is in the tropical zone. In the tropics, cumulus and cumulonimbus appear frequently, and their behavior makes weather forecasting difficult. The correlations of the forecasted irradiances with the observations are about 0.8 or more in the intra-day, next-day, and 2-day ahead forecastings. It shows that the validity of solar irradiance forecasting in the tropics for the prediction of PV output. On cloudy days, the tendency of the fluctuation of solar irradiance is reproduced well in the forecasting, but a phase of the fluctuation is shifted in the forecasting.

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Section: Solar Irradiance Forecasting With a Weather Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar irradiance prediction in the tropics using a weather forecasting model

Chinnavornrungsee,

Kittisontirak,

Chollacoop

et al. 2023

Jpn. J. Appl. Phys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This model is a physical meteorological model with fully compressible non-hydrostatic equations developed by the National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NCEP, and is used not only for real-time numerical weather forecasting (e.g. Salvação and Guedes Soares 32) ) but also for research under idealized conditions, data assimilation, and others (e.g. Pryor et al 33) ).…”

Section: Weather Research and Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability prediction of solar irradiance in the tropic using ensemble forecasting

Harada,

Moriai,

Chinnavornrungsee

et al. 2023

Jpn. J. Appl. Phys.

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As photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems become more widespread instability of the electric power grids with PV connection is becoming an issue. For appropriate management of the grids, probability prediction of solar irradiance is proposed. Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) method is used for ensemble forecasting. The 72-hour ahead forecasting of solar irradiance is operated in Thailand once a day, and it contains intra-day, next-day and 2-day ahead forecastings. The ensemble forecasting has three ensemble members. The accuracy of intra-day forecasting is higher than the other members, and it is employed as the most probable value of the forecasting. The relation between spread and forecasting error is analyzed. From the result, the confidence intervals of the predictions are derived for arbitrary reliability. The probability prediction is performed with the most probable value and the confidence intervals. The interval changes its width due to spread changes and captures the observation in it.

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An operational forecast system for wind conditions in the Portuguese pilot area of Aguçadoura

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Solar irradiance prediction in the tropics using a weather forecasting model

Solar irradiance prediction in the tropics using a weather forecasting model

Probability prediction of solar irradiance in the tropic using ensemble forecasting

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