An Ultrashort-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on a Switching Output Mechanism

Abstract

The ultrashort-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) technology assists the grid to arrange spare capacity, which is important to optimize power investment reasonably. To improve the accuracy of USTWPP and optimize power investment requirements, a USTWPP method with dynamic switching of multiple models is proposed. For high wind speed fluctuation samples, the wind speed-power curve (WSPC) is fitted in a large sample of historical data, and the corrected wind speed is the input of WSPC. The spatiotemporal attentive network model (STAN) is built for the prediction of low wind speed fluctuation samples. According to the real-time fluctuation characteristics of the correction wind speed, a switching mechanism between multiple models is established to reconstruct the prediction results along the time axis direction, and the predicted power is set to zero for the samples whose correction wind speed is lower than the cut-in wind speed. We conducted simulation experiments with data provided by a wind farm with an installed capacity of 130.5 MW in China. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for the 4 h ahead predicted power reaches 0.0907, which verified the validity and applicability of the proposed model.