An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

Fant, Charles; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; McCluskey, Alyssa; Strzepek, Kenneth

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1314-x

Cited by 17 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Irrigation demands are likely to be unmet in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and hydropower generation is likely to be reduced in Zambia. 36,44 According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease, which together contribute to a decrease in river flows. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, using A1B emission scenario.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Runoffmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review

Banze¹,

Guo²,

Shi³

2018

IJH

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Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review Submit Manuscript | http://medcraveonline.com IntroductionHuman influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. 1 according to Res & Trenberth,2 there is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. The African continent has been identified as particularly vulnerable to the changing climate due to its envisaged low adaptive capacity and vulnerability and the southern African region is regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa.3 This affects the water resource in terms of quality and quantity of water.4 Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and numerous climate change models predict that the continent's weather patterns will become more variable, and extreme weather events are expected to be more frequent and severe, with increasing risk to health and life. 1,4,5 The droughts and floods will increase in their frequency leading to more water stress. Alterations in agricultural, livestock and fisheries productivity will occur and Africa will face further food insecurity as well as possibly the spread of water-related diseases.According to Swain et al.,6 Zambezi basin is already experiencing drastic changes to its climate. In recent years the annual rainfall in the region decreased considerably and affected the annual flow levels. Over 128 million inhabitants that are part of the Zambezi River Basin are dependent on this river directly or indirectly as a source of food and water. In total the countries along the Zambezi Basin have 2.17 million km 2 of agricultural land, of which just 202,900 km 2 is arable. But as a consequence of increased agricultural land, there is also an increased need for irrigation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has categorized the Zambezi as the river basin exhibiting the "worst" potential effects of climate change among 11 major African basins. Over the next century, climate change is expected to increase this variability, and the vulnerability of the basin and its hydropower dams. 5 The Zambezi River Basin has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin in the world and the runoff is highly sensitive to variations in climate, as small changes in rainfall pattern produce large changes in runoff. The hydrology of the basin is very important for hydropo...

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Section: Projected Changes In Runoffmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review

Banze¹,

Guo²,

Shi³

2018

IJH

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“…For instance, five GCMs were used in ZRB to analyse streamflow and found that part of the basin will experience decreasing percentage changes while some parts will have increasing percentage changes [16]. A large GCM ensemble data applied in the Zambezi River basin found that a series of potential impacts are more severe under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 2.6 or 4.5, indicating that Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation may minimize uncertainties about the future climate scenarios, thereby reducing the risks of extreme changes as compared to the unconstrained emissions under RCP 8.5 [17]. GCM ensemble data were applied in Lake Victoria basin, Kenya and found that the range of change in mean annual rainfall of 2.4-23.2% corresponded to a change in streamflow of about 6-115% [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Streamflow under Climate Change in the Zambezi River Basin of Southern Africa

Ndhlovu

Woyessa

2021

Water

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The Zambezi River basin is the fourth largest basin in Africa and the largest in southern Africa, comprising 5% of the total area of the continent. The basin is extremely vulnerable to climate change effects due to its highly variable climate. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on streamflow in one of the sub-basins, the Kabombo basin. The multi- global climate model projections were used as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model for simulation of streamflow under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model predicted an annual streamflow increase of 85% and 6% for high uncertainty and strong consensus, respectively, under RCP 8.5. The model predicted a slightly reduced annual streamflow of less than 3% under RCP 4.5. The majority of simulations indicated that intra-annual and inter-annual streamflow variability will increase in the future for RCP 8.5 while it will reduce for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The predicted high and moderate rise in streamflow for RCP 8.5 suggests the need for adaptation plans and mitigation strategies. In contrast, the streamflow predicted for RCP 4.5 indicates that there may be a need to review the current management strategies of the water resources in the basin.

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“…Results from these models serve as inputs into a water resources systems model, based on the approach of Sieber and Purkey (2007), for assessment of flood risk, hydropower output, and balancing of water supply and demand across competing uses. Fant et al (2015) describe the application of this modeling suite (CliRun, CliCrop, and water resources) to the countries in focus.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The baseline) mean runoff in billion cubic meters (BCM) and the percent difference between the mean and the 10th and 90th historical percentiles are shown below the basin name ([10th] mean [90th]). Source:Fant et al (2015)…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

Arndt

Chinowsky

Fant³

et al. 2019

Climatic Change

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We consider the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries to 2050. Focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, we employ a structural approach to biophysical and economic modeling that incorporates climate uncertainty and allows for rigorous comparison of climate, biophysical, and economic outcomes across global mitigation regimes. We find that effective global mitigation policies generate two sources of benefit. First, less distorted climate outcomes result in typically more favorable and less variable economic outcomes. Second, successful global mitigation policies reduce global fossil fuel producer prices, relative to unconstrained emissions, providing a substantial terms of trade boost of structural fuel importers. Combined, these gains are on the order of or greater than estimates of mitigation costs. These results highlight the interests of most developing countries in effective global mitigation policies, even in the relatively near term, with much larger benefits post-2050.

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An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin

Cited by 17 publications

References 33 publications

Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review

Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review

Evaluation of Streamflow under Climate Change in the Zambezi River Basin of Southern Africa

Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia

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