An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

Abstract

Despite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40–50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48–59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI using an updated integrated global model, and considering the GPEI trajectory as of the beginning of 2020. Applying similar methods and assuming eradication achievement in 2023, we estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 28 billion US$2019, which falls below the prior estimate. Delays in achieving polio eradication combined with the widescale introduction of relatively expensive inactivated poliovirus vaccine significantly increased the costs of the GPEI and make it less cost‐effective, although the GPEI continues to yield expected incremental net benefits at the global level when considered over the time horizon of 1988–2029. The overall health and financial benefits of the GPEI will depend on whether and when the GPEI can achieve its goals, when eradication occurs, the valuation method applied, and the path dependence of the actions taken. Reduced expected incremental net benefits of the GPEI and the substantial economic impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic pose large financial risks for the GPEI.

Polio eradication: what kind of world do we want?

“…Countries and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) have made substantial progress toward polio eradication, 4 although as of early 2020 (before the COVID-19 pandemic was declared), GPEI was not on-track to succeed by the target year of 2023. 5 One major victory came with the last reported case caused by type 2 wild poliovirus in 1999, and certification of global eradication of indigenous type 2 wild poliovirus transmission in 2015.…”

Polio health economics: assessing the benefits and costs of polio, non-polio, and integrated activities of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative

“…Despite the expected long-term financial benefits of polio eradication, prior to 2012 the GPEI developed short-term (e.g., annual) budgets based largely on anticipated contributions. The chronic funding gaps led to challenges 27,[29][30][31] , and this motivated multiyear planning and financing since the 2013-2018 GPEI Strategic Plan 25 . GPEI health economic analyses recognized some investments it made in non-polio activities, but faced considerable challenges quantifying the impacts 27,30 .…”

“…The chronic funding gaps led to challenges 27,[29][30][31] , and this motivated multiyear planning and financing since the 2013-2018 GPEI Strategic Plan 25 . GPEI health economic analyses recognized some investments it made in non-polio activities, but faced considerable challenges quantifying the impacts 27,30 . A 2010 analysis estimated incremental net benefits associated with polio prevention of $42-47 billion (US$2008, equivalent to 52-59 billion US$2021, time-adjustments 32 ), if the GPEI succeeded in eradicating polio by 2012 30 .…”

“…However, following the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruption of GPEI activities, the WHO fully utilized GPEI resources and infrastructure to manage the COVID-19 pandemic in countries in which GPEI maintained staff and equipment 26 . From an economic perspective, unless the WHO reimburses the GPEI for the use of its resources, health economic analyses for the GPEI (e.g., 27 ) should include estimates of the COVID-19 and other health system benefits obtained through the use of GPEI resources during COVID-19. However, attributing the health and/or economic benefits will require full accounting of the GPEI resources used for COVID-19 response, and for other such emergency or incidental uses.…”

Probiotics in the times of COVID-19

“…In fact, we will face long term effects, which can be economical, social, educational, and significantly -psychological and medical. The latter ones result among others from limited or even temporarily blocked access to healthcare, whereas we will cope with the post COVID-19 symptoms, as well as with massive side effects of the pandemic lifestyle, including immunity depletion, skin condition worsening, overall fitness impairment, psychological and psychiatric consequences of triggering reality (Bashier et al, 2021) or even a transient jam in the measles or polio disease eradication programmes (Durrheim et al, 2021, Thompson & Kalkowska, 2021.…”