Análise de Sensibilidade do Modelo MGB-IPH a Mudanças de uso da Terra

Abstract

The effects of land-use changes on hydrology have been widely discussed for relatively small basins. In large basins, the use of hydrological models to study land-use changes has been an alternative experiment. However, the models must be sensitive to hydrological changes due to land-use modifications in the basin. In this sense, the objective of this study was to assess the sensitivity of the distributed model for large basins (MGB-IPH) in simulating land-use changes. The simulations showed that MGB-IPH is able to perform scenario studies of land-use changes, such as deforestation or reforestation, being consistent with the experimental results available in the literature.

Sensitivity test of the Hydrological Model of Large Basins (MGB-IPH) in scenarios of extreme changes in soil use and occupation, precipitation regime and mean air temperature.

“…The authors proposed extreme scenarios with 100% forest and 100% pasture, in average terms, similar to the scenarios proposed in this work. In both studies, the results showed that the average flow rates have a strong dependence on the type of soil cover and that when the type of cover is modified, the increase or decrease of the average flow can occur, according to Bayer and Collischonn (2013), is in agreement with the experimental results described in the literature. Classical studies in hydrology corroborate these results, for example, Hibbert (1967 apud Bosch andHewlett, 1982), verified that the average flow increases as a result of the change of forest to lower vegetation and deforestation.…”

“…The results show that the MGB-IPH model responds well to changes in soil cover characteristics. Similar results are found in Bayer and Collischonn (2013). The objective of the study by Bayer and Collischonn (2013) was to verify the sensitivity of the MGB-IPH to changes in land use and to compare its performance with results of experiments available in the literature.…”

“…Similar results are found in Bayer and Collischonn (2013). The objective of the study by Bayer and Collischonn (2013) was to verify the sensitivity of the MGB-IPH to changes in land use and to compare its performance with results of experiments available in the literature. The authors proposed extreme scenarios with 100% forest and 100% pasture, in average terms, similar to the scenarios proposed in this work.…”

“…These developments of cities alter land use and occupation. Studies on the influence of these changes in the flow regime of a river basin can be found in Bayer and Collischonn (2013), and Zeilhofer, Alcantara and Fantin-Cruz (2018). In these types of studies, hydrological modeling is presented as a useful tool to simulate future scenarios in different land uses and climatic variations (Clark et al, 2015;Kauffeldt et al, 2016;Sorribas et al, 2016).…”

Aplicação do modelo MGB-IPH na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Pardo em diferentes cenários de uso e ocupação do solo

“…O modelo hidrológico de grandes bacias do Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (MGB-IPH) é um modelo distribuído que utiliza uma base física que se divide em dois módulos: um que simula os processos hidrológicos verticais (balanço hídrico no solo, interceptação e evapotranspiração) e outro que simula os horizontais (escoamento superficial, subsuperficial, subterrâneo, propagação da vazão nos rios e na planície de inundação e propagação em reservatórios) (BAYER;COLLISCHONN, 2013). A evapotranspiração no modelo é calculada pela equação de Penman-Monteith, e a propagação na rede de drenagem é feita através do método de Muskingum-Cunge.…”