Análise dos fatores responsáveis pela redução de desmatamento na Amazônia Legal entre os anos de 2005 e 2013

Abstract

Land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon are complex, non-linear and temporally and spatially dissimilar. Divergences arise from the debate concerning which factors led to the recent decline in deforestation in the region. Hence, the present study aimed to shed light on the synergy that led to the reduction of deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon from 2005 to 2013. The methodology employed consisted of collecting and analysing primary data (interviews) and secondary data (literature review and compilation of existing statistical data). The results indicate that the basal factors for the decline in deforestation were: (i) the absence of incentives for deforesting large areas due to low beef and soy commodities prices from 2005 to 2007; (ii) the promulgation of the Decree 6321/07 and of the Central Bank Resolution 3545/08; (iii) the creation and expansion of existing protected areas; and (iv) the improvement of monitoring and surveillance practices in the region through the use of data generated by the Detection of Deforestation in Real Time (DETER) system. The secondary factors were market-oriented and cultural elements, associated with the launch of the Soy Moratorium, the Beef Moratorium and the embargo of farms were illegal deforestation was detected. Climate variables have not exerted influences in deforestation rates, but in anomalously dry years forest fire numbers increase significantly. The synergy that resulted in lower deforestation rates might be exhausted in future scenarios by a myriad of elements, such as the increased demand for commodities; the paving of new roads and construction of ports; the fragility of the implementation of environmental legislations; the development of new economic activities in the region; and the absence of socioenvironmental politics aimed at land reform settlements. Thus, it is recommended that the existing successful mechanisms to fight deforestation are improved, and new ones are created so that it is possible to maintain low deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon.

Mitigação das mudanças climáticas, e competência dos governos subnacionais: modelagem da demanda energética em centros urbanos e jurisdição das metas

“…A mudança do perfil de emissões de GEE é ilustrada pela Figura 6 a seguir. Ainda que determinar o nexo causal que gerou a redução do desmatamento seja uma tarefa complexa e não possa ser explicada por um único fator, é possível relacioná-lo a aspectos de grande influência como: a variação no valor de commodities como a soja 54 e o gado 55 , crises econômicas, implantação de políticas fundiárias, projetos de infraestrutura 56 , fortalecimento de sistemas de fiscalização e criação de reservas florestais (Mello, 2016).…”