Analisis Kestabilan Model Seir Untuk Penyebaran Covid-19 Dengan Parameter Vaksinasi

Jannah, Miftahul; Karim, Muhammad Ahsar; Yulida, Yuni

doi:10.30598/barekengvol15iss3pp535-542

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Berdasarkan [18], seseorang yang terkena gejala namun belum dinyatakan positif dari hasil pemeriksaan dapat menjadi media dalam penularan, jika orang tersebut bepergian keluar rumah atau bahkan keluar daerah tertentu. Oleh karena itu, berdasarkan [12], maka subpopulasi Susceptible dan Latent untuk model dalam [5], dapat direkonstruksi dengan menambahkan parameter migrasi, sebagai akibat dari perpindahan penduduk yang bisa dilakukan oleh individu yang sehat (rentan) dan individu Latent.…”

Section: Simulasi Numerikunclassified

Analisis Kestabilan Model Matematika Pada Penyebaran Covid Varian Omicron Dengan Kontrol Vaksinasi

Wulandari

Qomarudin

Sanwidi

et al. 2023

Jurnal Matematika UNAND

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Covid-19 pandemic has been going on for approximately two years in Indonesia. During the pandemic, COVID-19 virus has undergone many mutations. mutation process produces new variants, where the latest variant that has been discovered is known as the Omicron variant. This variant has a very rapid transmission rate. To overcome the problem of Omicron distribution, it is necessary to analyze the distribution through mathematical modeling. This research uses literature study method related to omicron, especially modeling using vaccination control. Study will analyze SLIR model of the spread of the omicron variant of covid with vaccination control. Formed model will be analyzed by determining equilibrium, stability and continued with the addition of controls and then numerically simulated. Model has four subpopulations, namely Susceptible, Latent, Infected, and Recovery with the addition of migration parameters in the Susceptible and Latent subpopulations to form a system of nonlinear differential equations. The results of the analysis of this model have two equilibrium points, namely the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Stability of the disease-free equilibrium point will be stable when . And the endemic stability meets and so that it is concluded that it is asymptotically stable. And with the addition of control in the form of vaccination, if vaccination can be carried out massively for at least 100 days, then the number of infected individuals can be controlled properly and the reduction in migration parameters obtained can minimize the number of latent and infected populations in Omicron sufferers so that the spread of disease can be controlled and the impact of the spread disease can be minimized.

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Section: Simulasi Numerikunclassified

Analisis Kestabilan Model Matematika Pada Penyebaran Covid Varian Omicron Dengan Kontrol Vaksinasi

Wulandari

Qomarudin

Sanwidi

et al. 2023

Jurnal Matematika UNAND

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“…Penelitian mengenai analisis kestabilan model SEIR COVID-19 dengan parameter vaksinasi pernah dilakukan oleh Jannah, dkk. Pada penelitiannya, didapatkan hasil bahwa model SEIR dengan parameter vaksinasi memiliki titik ekuilibrium yang stabil asimtotik [3].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Estimasi Tingkat Aktivasi Virus COVID-19 dengan Menggunakan Metode Kalman Filter (Studi Kasus: di Provinsi Jawa Timur)

2022

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COVID-19 is a concern in several countries because the rate of spread is fast enough to cause many deaths. COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-Cov-2. In this study, the SARS-Cov-2 activation rate was estimated using the Kalman Filter. The SARS-Cov-2 activation rate is the rate of change of the exposed class (Exposed) who completed the incubation period into the infected class (Infected). The spread of the COVID-19 disease was approached by the SEIR mathematical model. The SARS-Cov-2 activation rate is a parameter of SEIR's mathematical model of COVID-19 spread. The simulation results show that the SARS-Cov-2 activation rate in East Java in October 2021 is 0.563. The RMSE value that indicates the level of accuracy of the estimation process is 0,08. Keywords: COVID-19, Parameter Estimation, Kalman Filter, East Java Abstrak COVID-19 menjadi perhatian di beberapa negara karena tingkat penyebarannya cukup cepat hingga mengakibatkan banyak kematian. COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus SARS-Cov-2. Pada penelitian ini, tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 diestimasi menggunakan Kalman Filter. Tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 adalah tingkat perubahan individu terpapar (Exposed) yang selesai masa inkubasi dan masuk ke dalam kelas yang terinfeksi (Infected). Penyebaran penyakit COVID-19 didekati dengan model matematika SEIR. Tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 merupakan parameter dari model matematika penyebaran COVID-19 SEIR. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa tingkat aktivasi SARS-Cov-2 di Jawa Timur pada Oktober 2021 bernilai 0,563. Tingkat keakuratan proses estimasi ditunjukkan melalui nilai RMSE sebesar 0,08. Kata Kunci: COVID-19, Estimasi Parameter, Kalman Filter, Provinsi Jawa Timur.

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“…Kemudian, menentukan parameter yang paling mempengaruhi penyebaran penyakit Covid-19 di Kalimantan Selatan. Selanjutnya, (Jannah et al, 2021) membahas Model SEIR untuk penyakit Covid-19 dengan adanya vaksin. dan beberapa penelitian tentang model SVEIR, salah satunya Saputri (2014) menganalisis kestabilan model SVEIR pada penyakit difteri.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Pemodelan Matematika Penyebaran Covid-19 Dengan Model Sveir

Septiansyah

Karim

Yulida

2022

JMMTE

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Coronavirus disease 2019 or also known as Covid-19 is a disease caused by a type of coronavirus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or better known as the corona virus. Covid-19 become a pandemic since 2020 and has been widely studied, one of which is in mathematical modeling. In this study, the spread of Covid-19 is modeled using the SVEIR (Susceptible, Vaccination, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) model. The purpose of this study explains the formation of the Covid-19 SVEIR model, determines the equilibrium point, determines the basic reproduction number, and analyzes the stability of the Covid-19 SVEIR model. The purpose of this study explains the formation of the Covid-19 SVEIR model, determines the equilibrium point, the basic reproduction number, and analyzes the stability of the Covid-19 SVEIR model. The result of this study is to explain the formation of the Covid-19 SVEIR model and obtained two equilibrium points, the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number is obtained through the Next Generation Matrix method. The results of the stability analysis at the disease-free equilibrium point were locally asymptotically stable with conditions while at the endemic equilibrium point local asymptotically stable with conditions . The natural death rate is greater than the effective contact rate. A numerical simulation is presented to show a comparison spread of Covid-19 by providing different levels of vaccine effectiveness using the Runge-Kutta Order method.

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Analisis Kestabilan Model Seir Untuk Penyebaran Covid-19 Dengan Parameter Vaksinasi

Cited by 9 publications

References 3 publications

Analisis Kestabilan Model Matematika Pada Penyebaran Covid Varian Omicron Dengan Kontrol Vaksinasi

Analisis Kestabilan Model Matematika Pada Penyebaran Covid Varian Omicron Dengan Kontrol Vaksinasi

Estimasi Tingkat Aktivasi Virus COVID-19 dengan Menggunakan Metode Kalman Filter (Studi Kasus: di Provinsi Jawa Timur)

Pemodelan Matematika Penyebaran Covid-19 Dengan Model Sveir

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