Analysis and Application of Drought Characteristics Based on Theory of Runs and Copulas in Yunnan, Southwest China

Wang, Liping; Zhang, Xingnan; Wang, Shufang; Salahou, Mohamed Khaled; Fang, Yunmei

doi:10.3390/ijerph17134654

Cited by 29 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…On the other hand, Yunnan Province has become a hot spot of drought in Southwest China [37]. More articles focus on the analysis of drought changes and causes in Yunnan Province [27][28][29][30]38,39]. The severity and frequency of drought in Southwest China have increased in recent years, and drought events have become more frequent in the 21st century as can be seen by analyzing the spatiotemporal variation of SPEI and SRI, which is consistent with conclusions obtained by previous studies [40][41][42].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China

Tang

Wen

Shi

et al. 2021

Water

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Based on the data of 82 meteorological stations and six representative hydrological stations in four provinces in Southwest China (Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing), this paper uses standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in the study area from 1968 to 2018. Combined with the Southwest monsoon index and historical drought data, the correlation of drought and the applicability of different drought indices were verified. The results show that: (1) SPEI-12 in Southwest China shows a downward trend from 1968 to 2018, with a linear trend rate of −0.074/10a, and SPEI-3 has a downward trend in four seasons, the maximum linear trend rate being −0.106/10a in autumn;(2) The change in SRI-12 and SRI-24 value directly reflected the decrease in SRI value, indicating that drought events are increasing in recent times, especially in the 21st century (3). Severe drought occurred in the south of Southwest China, as indicated by the increase of drought frequency in this area. The main reason for the variations in the frequency distribution of drought in Southwest China is the combined effect of the change of precipitation and evapotranspiration. (4) The correlation between hydrological drought index and disaster areas is stronger than the correlation between meteorological drought and disaster areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China

Tang

Wen

Shi

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Run length theory is a method to analyze time series, which was initially applied to drought research by Herbst [22]. In this study, run length theory was used to extract two characteristic variables of drought severity and drought duration, The basic operation is as follows [20] (Figure 2):…”

Section: Drought Feature Recognitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are more than 20 copula functions in the toolbox which can be used for fitting. In this paper, three commonly used symmetric copula functions were selected, namely, Clayton copula, Gumbel copula and Frank copula [18,20] (Table 2). Finally, the selected functions were tested for goodness of fit to determine the optimal copula function, and the test methods were NSE and RMSE.…”

Section: Construction Of Copula Joint Distribution Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are many methods for the identification of drought characteristic variables, among which the most widely used method is the theory of running distance. Precipitation data is a typical time series, and the run theory can be used to analyze the discrete stochastic process well [19][20][21]. Herbst et al [22] were the first to use the run theory and monthly precipitation data to identify drought characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function

Wang

Rong

et al. 2021

Water

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Precipitation is low and drought occurs frequently in Northern Shaanxi. To study the characteristics and occurrence and development of drought events in Northern Shaanxi is beneficial to the prevention and control of drought disasters. Based on the monthly rainfall data of 10 meteorological stations in Northern Shaanxi from 1960 to 2019, the characteristic variables of drought events at each meteorological station in Northern Shaanxi were extracted by using run theory and copula function. The joint probability distribution and recurrence period were obtained by combining the duration and intensity of drought, and the relationship between drought characteristics and crop drought affected area was studied. The results show that (1) from 1960 to 2019, drought events mainly occurred in Northern Shaanxi with long duration and low severity, short duration and high severity, or short duration and low severity, among which the frequency of drought events that occurred in Yuyang and Baota districts was higher. The frequency of light drought and extreme drought was more in the south and less in the north, while the frequency of moderate drought and severe drought was more in the north and less in the south. (2) The optimal edge distribution of drought intensity and drought duration in Northern Shaanxi is generalized Pareto distribution, and the optimal fitting function is Frank copula function. The greater the duration and intensity of drought, the greater the cumulative probability and return period. (3) The actual recurrence interval and the theoretical recurrence interval of drought events in Northern Shaanxi were close, and the error was only 0.1–0.3a. The results of the joint return period can accurately reflect the actual situation, and this study can provide effective guidance for the prevention and management of agricultural dryland in Northern Shaanxi.

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“…He et al [31] used the run theory to identify the frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of all droughts in China on the basis of the monthly percentage of the precipitation anomaly rate index and found that China has five obvious meteorological drought-prone areas. These studies have shown that the run theory method can effectively identify and detect the temporal characteristics of drought [34,35]. Hence, determining whether the run theory can effectively and efficiently detect temporal drought features from SPEI sequences is an interesting topic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for Monitoring the Spatiotemporal Distribution and Clustering of Drought Characteristics in Hunan Province

Huang

Baig

et al. 2021

Applied Sciences

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Drought is a widespread phenomenon in the context of global climate change. Owing to the geographical location of Hunan Province in the middle reaches of Yangtze River and the abundance of forests area in this region with a large population, there is a need to focus on the impacts of drought for devising policies. The spatiotemporal distribution scheme of a given area must be determined to plan water management and protect ecosystems effectively. This study proposes a framework for exploring the spatiotemporal distribution model of drought using comprehensive surveys of historical meteorological stations, which consists of two parts, namely the characteristics of drought extraction in the spatiotemporal distribution and drought models discovered by the clustering method. Firstly, we utilized the run theory to extract drought characteristics, such as drought duration, drought severity, and drought intensity. Secondly, the K-means clustering method was adopted to explore the distribution patterns on the basis of the drought characteristics. Lastly, the method was applied to Hunan Province. Results show that historical drought conditions can be monitored with their characteristics of spatiotemporal variability. Three drought distribution clusters exist in this region. Cluster 1 in western Hunan tends to be a long-term, low-intensity drought, cluster 2 in the southern part tends to be a short-term, high-intensity drought, and cluster 3 in the central part is prone to severe drought. The proposed framework is flexible as it allows parameters to be adjusted and extraction methods to achieve reasonable results for a given area.

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Analysis and Application of Drought Characteristics Based on Theory of Runs and Copulas in Yunnan, Southwest China

Cited by 29 publications

References 32 publications

Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China

Analysis of Characteristics of Hydrological and Meteorological Drought Evolution in Southwest China

Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Northern Shaanxi Based on Copula Function

Framework for Monitoring the Spatiotemporal Distribution and Clustering of Drought Characteristics in Hunan Province

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