Analysis of a dirty bomb attack in a large metropolitan area: simulate the dispersion of radioactive materials

Abstract

The potential for a radiological or nuclear attack has been widely acknowledged in the last two decades. The use of a dirty bomb by terrorist organizations is considered to be a credible threat for which policymakers and relevant security agencies must prepare. Radioactive materials are stored in thousands of facilities around the world and may not be adequately protected against theft. This article analyzes a hypothetical dirty bomb attack in a large metropolitan area, evaluating the radiation dose to the involved population. The dispersion of radioactive materials is simulated using HOTSPOT code, considering a number of possible radionuclides (alpha, beta and gamma emitters) and scenarios. The findings of the present study corroborate and extend previous research demonstrating that it is unlikely that the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material contained in a dirty bomb would produce deterministic effects in the exposed population. The radioactive material would be dispersed into the air resulting in relatively low doses. However, depending on the situation, the explosion of a dirty bomb is likely to contaminate properties (rendering them temporarily uninhabitable), thereby requiring potentially costly cleanup. Furthermore, due to the general fear of radiation, pervasive psychological effects are expected.

First Responder Safety in the Event of a Dirty Bomb Detonation in Urban Environment

“…The number of conceivable radionuclides is very large, and it is not possible to predict which one is suitable for a terroristic attack [11]. In fact, it depends on many factors such as availability, opportunity to steal and manage, easiness to transport, and many other reasons.…”

Quantification of a Facility Radiological Security Risk Index With a Graphical User Interface Tool

“…It was found that when changing the explosive amount to 907 kg, while keeping the other simulation parameters constant, the TEDE values were lower than the TEDE values obtained for a smaller explosive of 68 kg. This implies that the higher the explosive power, the higher the dispersion of the radionuclide and consequently the lower the TEDE and the radionuclide ground surface deposition (Bioncotto et al 2020).…”

The HotSpot Code as a Tool to Improve Risk Analysis During Emergencies: Predicting I-131 and CS-137 Dispersion in the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

“…• to predict the atmospheric release of radioactive material in the form of particles and dust due to the detonation of a hypothetical improvised nuclear device [20];…”

“…HotSpot is a hybrid of the well-established Gaussian Plume Model, widely used for initial emergency assessment or safety analysis planning. Virtual source terms are used to model the initial atmospheric distribution of source material following explosion, fire, resuspension, or user-input geometry [20].…”