Analysis of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Iran Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis

Abstract

Background: It is important to be able to predict cancer incidence and mortality rates for planning and managing the risk factors. Objectives: The present study investigated the changes in the incidence and mortality rates of five most common cancers in Iran. Methods:The cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the national cancer and mortality registries. Five most common cancers in both men and women were selected. Changes in the incidence and mortality rates of the selected cancers in both sexes were estimated by age group, annual percent change (APC), and average APC (AAPC) and then graphically displayed. Results:The most common cancers (except skin cancer) were breast, colorectal, stomach, esophageal, and thyroid cancers in women and stomach, prostate, bladder, colorectal, and esophageal cancers in men, respectively. The AAPCs of all cancer incidence rates had increased by 11.9% in men and 11.6% in women from 2002 to 2010. Also, the mortality rates had enhanced by 0.4% and 0.1% per year in men and women from 2006 to 2011, respectively. The greatest APC was reported in prostate cancer. The rate had increased by 41.9% from 2002 to 2004, by 13.4% from 2004 to 2008, and slowly augmented by 3.9% from 2008 to 2010. In women, the greatest APC was observed in colorectal cancer; the rate had enhanced by 13.4% per year from 2002 to 2010. The greatest increase for age-standardized mortality and incidence in 2011 was attributed to gastric cancer (12.5% and 17.1% per 100,000 men, respectively). In women, the highest age-standardized mortality rate was related to gastric cancer at 6.9% per 100,000 women. The incidence and mortality patterns of colorectal and esophageal cancers in men and women were similar, although they were slightly higher in men than women. Conclusions: Overall, cancer incidence rates had increased in both sexes. Many factors were responsible, such as changes in lifestyle, environmental factors, increased life expectancy, improvements in the registration systems, and declining mortality rates due to early detection and treatment. The results of this study provided useful information for the prediction of changes in the incidence and mortality of cancer and subsequent design of cancer control programs in Iran.

The incidence of prostate cancer in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis

“…The characteristics of the included studies have been summarized in Table 1 . Considering the geographical region, seven studies were conducted in all states of Iran, 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 three in Fars province, 16 , 17 , 18 two in Golestan province, 19 , 20 one in British Columbia (BC) Iranians, 21 one in Tehran province, 22 one in East Azerbaijan province, 23 one in Khuzestan province, 24 one in Yazd province, 25 one in Qom province, 26 one in Shahroud city, 27 and one in Mazandaran province. 28 In addition, one survey was conducted in five provinces (Ardabil, Guilan, Mazandaran, Golestan, and Kerman).…”

Time trend analysis of breast cancer in Iran and its six topographical regions: a population-based study

“…It should also be noted that reduced use of estrogen therapy at a higher age [ 37 ] could somewhat decrease the incidence of the disease after the age of 50. However, the increased mean age and the aging phenomenon could also be a factor in the overall increase of the incidence of skin cancer and other cancers in Iran because, according to the results of the study on the indicators of heath feature in Iran, the life expectancy in this country has increased [ 38 ], and since the incidence of skin cancer was also the highest in the 1980s, the rise in the incidence of this cancer in Iran could be somewhat justified.…”

Trends of Colorectal Cancer Epidemiology and Morphology in Tehran Metropolis, Iran from 2006 to 2015

“…CRC is a multifactorial disease with wide global patterns and is strongly linked to human development index level, reflecting the adoption of western lifestyles that accompany economic transition and elevate risk. Although the absolute risk of CRC in adults younger than 50 years is low relative to older adults, disease trends in young age groups are a key indicator of recent changes in risk factor exposures and often foreshadow the future cancer burden (3,8,9). In general, the incidence of CRC is rising in low-income and middleincome countries but beginning to stabilize or decline in high-income countries, especially those that have implemented screening (10).…”