Analysis of Competing Hypothesis for Investigating Lone Wolf Terrorist

Abstract

One of the most unpredictable forms of terrorism acts are those committed by a single individual, a so-called "lone wolf terrorist". The most difficult part in detecting a lone wolf is that they can come in any size, shape, and ethnicity and represent any ideology. However, there are some characteristic similarities that many lone wolves share. In this paper we identify three different areas where similarities among lone wolves can be found: the background and their behavior, the radicalization process and the terrorist planning cycle. We use an adoption of the analysis of competing hypotheses method where we introduce the notion of template hypotheses. A template hypotheses aims to capture similarities between different lone wolf cases. The hypotheses are continuously developed and cultivated into more detailed hypotheses that are specific for each individual. We outline how a computer-support tool for investigating lone wolf terrorists using this method could be implemented.

Distinguishing “Loner” Attacks from Other Domestic Extremist Violence

“…Fourth, the study of loners is important because of the challenges in preventing such attacks (see Kaati and Svenson, ; Michael, ; Spaaij, ). In fact, Bakker and de Graaf (2011: 1) argued that such attacks consist of the “most puzzling and unpredictable forms of terrorism.” Investigators and intelligence analysts are concerned because loners are difficult to detect, as they are not connected to other extremist individuals.…”

“…8) also commented that “[t]he primary threat presented by a lone wolf is the difficulty of detection, and that threat is significant. If someone truly acts without any support or significant contact with other conspirators, it is very hard to identify him and prevent him from carrying out an attack.” Informants are critical to terrorism investigations, but such strategies are not relevant when attempting to prevent loner attacks (Kaati and Svenson, ). Interestingly, these concerns assume that loner offenders are different from other extremist offenders, but as noted previously, little empirical research has established whether such differences exist.…”

Harvesting and analysis of weak signals for detecting lone wolf terrorists

“…It is observed by [1] that lone wolf terrorists are often creating their own ideologies, combining aversion with religion, society, or politics with a personal frustration. Hence, a lone wolf terrorist can in theory come in any size, any shape, and any ethnicity, as well as representing any ideology [11].…”

“…For a lone wolf, obtaining the necessary capabilities for an attack might be a problem since they can not in general receive the same kind of systematic training such as, e.g., al-Qaeda terrorists. This may be one of the reasons why lone wolves are rarely suicide bombers, i.e., since such an attack may be too complicated and involves too much preparation [11]. However, the Internet contains much material that potential lone wolf terrorists can use to acquire the knowledge they need to succeed with more simple kinds of attacks.…”

Identifying Warning Behaviors of Violent Lone Offenders in Written Communication

“…The most difficult part in detecting a violent lone offender is that they can come in any size, shape, and ethnicity and represent any ideology [1]. The lack of a common profile or modus operandi among violent offenders increases the challenge to identify, target and arrest persons that act on their own [2].…”