Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related mortality across 44 U.S. metropolitan areas

Chestnut, Lauraine G.; Breffle, William S.; Smith, Joel B.; Kalkstein, Laurence S.

doi:10.1016/s1462-9011(98)00015-x

Cited by 85 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…According to projections for 2020, the disparity will grow even more as the Seattle study area (10%) will still have significantly lower percentages of residential air condition than the Spokane (41%), Tri-Cities (68%), and Yakima (30%) study areas. This association between lowered risks for heat related illness and higher prevalence of residential air conditioning has also been cited by a number of authors Chestnutt et al 1998) as a mitigating factor on heat related illness during heat events.…”

Section: Mortality and Heat Eventsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

et al. 2010

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C limate change is likely to have serious and long-term consequences for public health. Among these are illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality In this study we examined the historical relationship between age-and cause-specific mortality rates and heat events at the 99 th percentile of humidex values in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County from 1980 through 2006; the relative risk of mortality during heat events compared with more temperate periods were then applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline expected to occur during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. We also estimated excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations for mid century (2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054) in King and Spokane counties. Estimates were based on current (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) ozone measurements and mid-21 st century ozone projections, using estimates from the scientific literature to determine the effect of ozone on overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. For the historical heat analysis, relative risks derived for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between duration of the heat event and the daily mortality rate for non-traumatic deaths for persons aged 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99 th percentile. Three different warming scenarios were considered, including high, low and moderate estimates. In the greater Seattle area, the largest number of excess deaths in all years and scenarios was predicted for persons aged 65 and above. Under the middle scenario, this age group is expected to have 96 excess deaths in 2025, 148 excess deaths in 2045 and 266 excess deaths in 2085 from all non-traumatic causes. Daily maximum 8 hour ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16-28% higher in the mid 21 st century [1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006]. We estimated that the total non-traumatic ozone mortality rate by mid-century for King County would increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013-0.038) to 0.033 (0.017-0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate was 0.058 (0.030-0.085) and increased to 0.068 (0.035 -0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (0.005-0.017) to 0.015 (0.007-0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (0.013-0.042) to 0.032 (0.015-0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington's population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be r...

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Section: Mortality and Heat Eventsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

et al. 2010

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“…Actual impacts may be greater or lesser depending in part on demographic changes and societal decisions affecting preparedness, health care, and urban design. Individuals likely to be most affected include elderly, children, the economically disadvantaged, and those who are already ill (19,20).…”

Section: Extreme Heat and Heat-related Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

Hayhoe

Cayan

Field

et al. 2004

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

738

640

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The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine͞subalpine forests are reduced by 50 -75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30 -70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine͞subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. C alifornia, with its diverse range of climate zones, limited water supply, and economic dependence on climatesensitive industries such as agriculture, provides a challenging test case to evaluate impacts of regional-scale climate change under alternative emissions pathways. As characterized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, demographic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions underlying longterm emissions scenarios vary widely (1). Previous studies have not systematically examined the difference between projected regional-scale changes in climate and associated impacts across scenarios. Nevertheless, such information is essential to evaluate the potential for and costs of adaptation associated with alternative emissions futures and to inform mitigation policies (2).Here, we examine a range of potential climate futures that represent uncertainties in both the physical sensitivity of current climate models and divergent greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Two global climate models, the low-sensitivity National Center for Atmospheric Research͞Department of Energy Parallel Climate Model (PCM) (3) and the medium-sensitivity U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3 (HadCM3), model (4, 5) are used to calculate climate change resulting from the SRES (Sp...

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“…To be effective, adaptive responses must target these vulnerable demographic groups, some of which may be difficult to reach (Chestnut et al 1998). For example, the elderly are less likely to perceive excess heat (Blum et al 1998).…”

Section: The Effects Of Climate Change May Vary Across Demographic Grmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risks, opportunities and adaptation to climate change

Scheraga

Grambsch²

1998

Clim. Res.

123

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Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and for exploiting beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents 9 fundamenal principles that should be considered when designing adaptation policy, for example, a sound understanding of the potential regional effects of climate on human and ecological systems is required to target appropriate investments in adaptive responses. The distribution of potential impacts across different populations and the mechanisms by which these impacts occur are also key to effective adaptation measures. Options for coping with climatic changes must be considered in the context of multiple stressors. Further, adaptation is likely to exhibit varying levels of effectiveness as demonstrated by current efforts to deal with climate variability. Potential adverse side effects of adaptive strategies must also be accounted for to avoid solutions that are worse than the problem. These issues and others are presented in this paper, with examples from various impacts studies to illustrate key points.

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Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related mortality across 44 U.S. metropolitan areas

Cited by 85 publications

References 12 publications

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

Risks, opportunities and adaptation to climate change

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