Analysis of passing sequences, shots and goals in soccer

Abstract

Early research into how goals were scored in association football (Reep and Benjamin, 1968) may have shaped the tactics of British football. Most coaches have been affected, to a greater or lesser extent, by the tactics referred to as the "long-ball game" or "direct play", which was a tactic employed as a consequence of this research. Data from these studies, published in the late 1960s, have been reconfirmed by analyses of different FIFA World Cup tournaments by several different research groups. In the present study, the number of passes that led to goals scored in two FIFA World Cup finals were analysed. The results conform to that of previous research, but when these data were normalized with respect to the frequency of the respective lengths of passing sequences, there were more goals scored from longer passing sequences than from shorter passing sequences. Teams produced significantly more shots per possession for these longer passing sequences, but the strike ratio of goals from shots is better for "direct play" than for "possession play". Finally, an analysis of the shooting data for successful and unsuccessful teams for different lengths of passing sequences in the 1990 FIFA World Cup finals indicated that, for successful teams, longer passing sequences produced more goals per possession than shorter passing sequences. For unsuccessful teams, neither tactic had a clear advantage. It was further concluded that the original work of Reep and Benjamin (1968), although a key landmark in football analysis, led only to a partial understanding of the phenomenon that was investigated.

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“…Some studies combined ball possession and overall shots. Specifically, the researchers found that the most successful teams performed more overall shots as a result of converting ball possession in opportunities to score (Griffiths, 1999;Hughes & Franks, 2005;. Bekris and colleagues (2005) findings suggested that teams which perform more shots than their opponents indicate 57.2% winning percentage (Bekris, Louvaris, Souglis, Hountis, & Siokou, 2005).…”

“…The league winner also achieved to reduce the passing accuracy of the opponents, finding that probably is a winning indicator (Βekris et al, 2013). Hughes and Franks (2005) concluded that pass sequence is positively linked to goal achievement. Furthermore, successful teams perform higher number of assists than the less successful ones (Armatas, Yiannakos, Papadopoulou, & Skoufas, 2009;Βekris et al, 2013;.…”

“…In the 1990In the , 2006 World Cups, the successful teams performed more overall shots than the unsuccessful ones (Castellano et al, 2012;Hughes & Franks, 2005;Szwarc, 2004; (Βekris et al, 2013;Janković, Leontijević, Jelušić, Pašić, & Mićović, 2011b;Rampinini, Impellizzeri, Castagna, Coutts, & Wisløff, 2009). Some studies combined ball possession and overall shots.…”

“…In World Cup of 1990 (Hughes & Franks, 2005), in Euro of 2000 (Hook & Hughes, 2001), as well as in World Cups of 2002/2006/2010 (Castellano, Casamichana, & Lago, 2012) the most successful teams performed higher possession percentage than the less successful ones. Janković and colleagues (2011a) also added that in World Cup of 2010 the winners performed longer possession ratings than losers, while the opponent teams presented similar ratings after draws (Janković, Leontijević, Pašić, & Jelušić, 2011a).…”

“…Previous findings suggested that successful teams perform more overall shots than the less successful ones. However the researchers included all the results regardless the score difference (Armatas et al, 2009;Castellano FOTEINI ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ , 2012;Hughes & Franks, 2005;Janković et al, 2011a;Rampinini et al, 2009;Szwarc, 2004). Findings of the current study agree with Bekris and colleagues (2013) who suggested that only the champion differ significantly from the other teams.…”