Analysis of rainfall simulated by CORDEX regional climate models over West Africa

Camara, Moctar; Diedhiou, Arona; Sow, Bamol Ali; Diallo, Mamadou Diogo; Diatta, Samo; Mbaye, I; Diallo, Ismaïla

doi:10.1684/sec.2013.0375

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…They are useful for providing a regional climate analysis for many meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, etc.,) for a given region (e.g. Africa) and at different periods [23] [24]. Moreover, CORDEX simulations have been evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate mean climate (precipitation and temperature) as well as climate extremes in Africa with satisfactory results [23] [24] [25] [26].…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

Diarrassouba,

Diawara,

Yapo

et al. 2024

ACS

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This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d'Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d'Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period . Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km 2 to 134,960 km 2 depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d'Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country's economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

Diarrassouba,

Diawara,

Yapo

et al. 2024

ACS

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“…This study was conducted over West Africa, covering the domain (5 • -15 • N, 15 • W-15 • E) and spanning the Atlantic coast to Chad and the Gulf of Guinea to the southern fringes of the Sahara [33]. This domain is subdivided into three subregions, coherent with [35] the Western Sahel and the Eastern Sahel, located in the Sahel area and the Gulf of Guinea on the border of the Atlantic Ocean (refer to Figure 1). The identification of these subregions is based on their location, the climate variability, and other physical features including the ecosystem, the elevation, and the soil occupation.…”

Section: Study Domainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To this end, this work aims to evaluate the strength of the CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean in capturing the seasonal cycle of heatwaves and wet and dry spells under the present climate conditions, with the observations from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) as a reference, and then analyzes the projected changes in their seasonal cycles over two future periods (2031-2060 and 2071-2100) with respect to the present climate, using CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean. In fact, CORDEX simulations were mainly used in many studies conducted over West Africa for a validation of the mean climate state, its variability, and extreme events [35][36][37][38][39][40], as well as to better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena and their variability and changes through downscaling [41]. This study aims to provide information about the future climate changes under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and global warming levels [23,[42][43][44][45][46][47].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Heatwaves, Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using CORDEX Simulations

Yapo,

Kouassi,

Diawara

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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This study analyzes the potential response of the seasonal cycle of heatwaves (HWDI) and dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) spell indices over West Africa for the near- (2031–2060) and the far-future periods (2071–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. Despite the fact that some relative biases (an underestimation of 30% for CDD, an overestimation of about 60% for CWD, and an overestimation of about 50% for HWDI) exist, during the historical period (1976–2005) in general, the CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean outperform the seasonal variability in the above-mentioned indices over three defined subregions of West Africa (i.e., the Gulf of Guinea and Western and Eastern Sahel). They show high correlation coefficients (0.9 in general) and less RMSE. They project an increase (about 10 and 20 days) in heatwave days for both the near- and far-future periods over the whole West African region under both RCP scenarios. In addition, projections indicate that the Sahel regions will experience a decrease (about 5 days) in wet spell days from March to November, while in the Gulf of Guinea, a decrease (about 3 days) is projected throughout the year, except in the CCCLM simulation, which indicates an increase (about 5 days) during the retreat phase of the monsoon (October to December). Our results also highlight an increase (about 80%) in dry spells over the Sahel regions that are more pronounced during the March–November period, while over the Gulf of Guinea, an increase (about 40%) is projected over the entire year. Moreover, the months of increasing dry spells and decreasing wet spells coincide, suggesting that countries in these regions could be simultaneously exposed to dry seasons associated with a high risk of drought and heatwaves under future climate conditions.

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“…The model has been integrated from November 1979 to December 2009. The RegCM4 model has been extensively used for the simulations of the West African monsoon spatiotemporal variability [17,[33][34][35].…”

Section: Model Description and Experimental Set Upmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These models (GCMs) are generally supplemented by regional climate models (RCMs) known for their high spatial resolution [18-20]. These regional climate models (RCMs) allow a better representation of fine scale forcing and land surface heterogeneity (vegetation variations, coastlines, complex topography), which are important aspects governing the variability of the West African climate [1,17]. Numerous studies [1,9] show that these models (RCMs) reproduce well the dynamical features and their relation to precipitation and temperatures patterns over West Africa, despite some uncertainties related to model physics parameterization.…”

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confidence: 99%

Investigating West African Monsoon Features in Warm Years Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

2019

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This study investigates the changes in West African monsoon features during warm years using the Regional Climate Model version 4.5 (RegCM4.5). The analysis uses 30 years of datasets of rainfall, surface temperature and wind parameters (from 1980 to 2009). We performed a simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km with the RegCM4.5 model driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. The rainfall amount is weaker over the Sahel (western and central) and the Guinea region for the warmest years compared to the coldest ones. The analysis of heat fluxes show that the sensible (latent) heat flux is stronger (weaker) during the warmest (coldest) years. When considering the rainfall events, there is a decrease of the number of rainy days over the Guinea Coast (in the South of Cote d’Ivoire, of Ghana and of Benin) and the western and eastern Sahel during warm years. The maximum length of consecutive wet days decreases over the western and eastern Sahel, while the consecutive dry days increase mainly over the Sahel band during the warm years. The percentage of very warm days and warm nights increase mainly over the Sahel domain and the Guinea region. The model also simulates an increase of the warm spell duration index in the whole Sahel domain and over the Guinea Coast in warm years. The analysis of the wind dynamic exhibits during warm years a weakening of the monsoon flow in the lower levels, a strengthening in the magnitude of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in the mid-troposphere and a slight increase of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in the upper levels of the atmosphere during warm years.

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Analysis of rainfall simulated by CORDEX regional climate models over West Africa

Cited by 11 publications

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Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Heatwaves, Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using CORDEX Simulations

Investigating West African Monsoon Features in Warm Years Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

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Analysis of rainfall simulated by CORDEX regional climate models over West Africa

Cited by 11 publications

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Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of C&#244;te d’Ivoire

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of C&#244;te d’Ivoire

Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Heatwaves, Dry and Wet Spells over West Africa Using CORDEX Simulations

Investigating West African Monsoon Features in Warm Years Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

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Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire