Analysis of SIR epidemic model with information spreading of awareness

Kabir, K. M. Ariful; Kuga, Kazuki; Tanimoto, Jun

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2018.12.017

Cited by 180 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Correspondingly, the SEIR model [9]- [11] (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) and SEIQR model (susceptible-exposedinfected-quarantine-recovered) model [12] are exhibited the extended of SIR model for various diseases and situations that explained the pre-infection exposed state and the post quarantine policy. Aside from those models, many researchers investigated epidemic model by introducing metapopulation, vaccination, information spreading and treatment [13]- [18]. Recently, Chen et al [19] explained about Bats-Hosts-Reservoir based mathematical model for novel coronavirus that does not concerned about any provisions to suppress the pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis.

Chowdhury

Kabir

Tanimoto

2020

Preprint

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Background: Novel coronavirus was named as SARS-CoV-2 is a transmissible viral disease that has rapidly stroke around the world and is currently a major thread for developing and under poverty level countries by the World Bank and WHO's prediction. Without inventing vaccination or the proper treatment, how we control a faster infectious disease like SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 is one of the most admitted questions with which our developed civilization faces right now.At the same time, some policies termed as \isolation", \quarantine",\lock-down" and \social distancing" would give a stunning direction to control the epidemic outbreak.Methods: In this paper, we developed a novel theoretical model named \Social Distancing SEIQR model" to control the spread of infection by combining both quarantine and social distancing explicitly based on the real cases that observed where medical equipment and others resources are limited.Results: Our modelling basic reproduction number R0 is almost accurate predictor threshold to assess the transmissibility of the COVID-19 in Bangladesh.A linear regression polynomial fit result showed that our model fitted well to the reported COVID-19 cases data for Bangladesh.Conclusion: Our model will help to nd some strong strategies for controlling faster from spreading the virus and protect the nation when a country has limited medical resources.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis.

Chowdhury

Kabir

Tanimoto

2020

Preprint

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“…There are various families of models depending on the assumptions on the mechanisms of propagation. For example, there are susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) systems which have been used to model nonlinear incidence rates and double epidemic hypotheses [8] , susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models which are employed to consider the awareness of the presence of a disease [9] , susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) models that predict the propagation of epidemics with non-local reaction functions [10] , susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered (SEIQR) systems used to account for adjusted incidence and imperfect vaccinations [11] , among other examples. It is worth pointing out that most of the deterministic models available in the literature are based on the use of ordinary differential equations, which means that a constant diffusion among the population is assumed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Design of a nonlinear model for the propagation of COVID-19 and its efficient nonstandard computational implementation

Rafiq

Macías‐Díaz

Raza

et al. 2021

Applied Mathematical Modelling

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Highlights Mathematical considerations of a SEIQR model to describe the propagation of COVID-19 are proposed. We derive analytically the reproductive number and the equilibria with and without COVID-19. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the equilibria are mathematically established. An efficient nonstandard method to solve the continuous problem is proposed and analyzed. The numerical simulations confirm the analytical and numerical results derived in this work.

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“…It is the prevailing theoretical framework for understanding social and complex epidemic dynamics (Tanimoto, 2015(Tanimoto, , 2019Smith, 1974). Epidemiology with vaccination as a major issue in the study of evolutionary biology has been widely researched in the past few decades (Kabir et al, 2019a(Kabir et al, , 2019bWang et al, 2016;Bauch and Earn, 2004;Kuga et al, 2019;Fukuda et al, 2014;Fukuda and Tanimoto, 2016;Iwamura and Tanimoto, 2018). More recently, a number of precursors used theoretical models to better understand epidemic dynamics in both local (single epidemic season) and global (repeated seasons) time scales, in order to explore how to control contagious diseases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-efficiency analysis of voluntary vaccination against n-serovar diseases using antibody-dependent enhancement: A game approach

Kabir

Tanimoto

2020

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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Records of epidemics acknowledge immunological multi-serotype illnesses as an important aspect of the occurrence and control of contagious diseases. These patterns occur due to antibody-dependentenhancement (ADE) among serotype diseases, which leads to infection of secondary infectious classes. One example of this is dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome, which comprises the following four serotypes: DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. The evolutionary vaccination game approach is able to shed light on this long-standing issue in a bid to evaluate the success of various control programs. Although immunization is regarded as one of the most accepted approaches for minimizing the risk of infection, cost and efficiency are important factors that must also be considered. To analyze the nserovar aspect alongside ADE consequence in voluntary vaccination, this study establishes a new mathematical epidemiological model that is dovetailed with evolutionary game theory, an approach through which we explored two vaccine programs: primary and secondary. Our findings illuminate that the 'costefficiency' effect for vaccination decision exhibits an impact on controlling n-serovar infectious diseases and should be designed in such a manner as to avoid adverse effects. Furthermore, our numerical result justifies the fact that adopting ADE significantly boosted emerging disease incidence, it also suggest that the joint vaccine policy works even better when the complex cyclical epidemic outbreak takes place among multi serotypes interactions. Research also exposes that the primary vaccine is a better controlling tool than the secondary; however, introducing a highly-efficiency secondary vaccine against secondary infection plays a key role to control the disease prevalence.

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Analysis of SIR epidemic model with information spreading of awareness

Cited by 180 publications

References 29 publications

How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis.

How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis.

Design of a nonlinear model for the propagation of COVID-19 and its efficient nonstandard computational implementation

Cost-efficiency analysis of voluntary vaccination against n-serovar diseases using antibody-dependent enhancement: A game approach

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