Analysis of the South African input-output table to determine sector specific economic impacts: A study on real estate

Boshoff, Douw Gert Brand; Seymore, Reyno

doi:10.4102/sajems.v19i4.1404

Cited by 2 publications

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“…In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. (p. 9) http://www.sajems.org Open Access (Majory & Stephen 2011; Van Seventer 1999), on using inputoutput methods (Boshoff & Seymore 2016;Kavese & Phiri 2020;Park & Chan 1989), on utilising Bayesian methods (Kim & Hewings 2019), or on combining input-output analysis and system dynamics modelling (Uehara, Cordier & Hamaide 2018). In this paper, all these elements are combined in order to forecast not only national gross value added (GVA), but also provincial GVA, and estimate the relevant provincial multipliers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic, stochastic, Bayesian, provincial input–output model for the South African economy

Crookes

2024

South African Journal of Economic and management Sciences

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In South Africa, the Green Economy accord was signed in 2011, with the intention to create at least 300 000 green jobs (Borel-Saladin & Turok 2013).One of the main methods for facilitating a transition to a green industrial policy is input-output analysis (eds. Altenburg & Assmann 2017). But many of the existing tools for conducting an inputoutput analysis are not geared towards addressing the poverty alleviation aspect of the Green Economy definition. For example, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) (Timmer et al. 2015), 2016-release, contains data on 28 European Union (EU) countries and 15 other major economies from 2000 to 2014. Although this is an extremely important and useful dataset, significant to the present study, there is to date no disaggregation for any African country in the dataset (Gouma et al. 2018).The forecasting of macroeconomic phenomena has long been important in South Africa (Gupta & Kabundi 2010). Most previous analyses have focused either on a provincial disaggregation Background: The green economy has long been important in public discourses, as has been the forecasting of macroeconomic phenomena. Aim:The purpose with this study was to construct a regional input-output model for the South African economy. Setting:The model is a coupled input-output/system dynamics model. It is dynamic in the sense that sector growth follows the 'limits to growth' hypothesis. The model is used to explore the impact on the green economy, and also on poverty indices.Method: It was constructed using Vensim®, a system dynamics modelling package. Bayesian methods were utilised to estimate realistic values for the multipliers. Type I multipliers for output, income, employment and gross value added (GVA) are estimated. The model was then 'tested' by forecasting various resource sectors' GVA (i.e. agriculture, mining, water, electricity). Results:The model fits the historical data well, replicating provincial GVA as well as national GVA to an acceptable standard. The multipliers fell within appropriate ranges, and followed a priori expectations. Conclusion:The model provides 'highly accurate' forecasts of various macroeconomic parameters, including the resources sectors. The impact of different multipliers in the three resources sectors on various poverty indices in South Africa was also assessed. Contribution:The model has great potential for further use in the agricultural, energy and resource sectors, but also has wider application since it provides a means for generating an input-output table for any specific year based on the forecasting of input -output elements.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic, stochastic, Bayesian, provincial input–output model for the South African economy

Crookes

2024

South African Journal of Economic and management Sciences

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“…Our study not only aims to fill this identified gap by providing forward and backward tax multipliers for the South African economy, but we further address other gaps identified in the literature. For instance, previous studies that applied Leontief-based multiplier models to the South African economy, generally focused either on one sector, for example the mining sector (Stillwell 1999), real estate (Boshoff & Seymore 2016), sugar-sweetened beverages (National Treasury 2017), or the agricultural sector (Phoofolo 2018), or their analysis was static, based on a single year (Cloete & Rossouw 2014;Davies & Thurlow 2013;Van Seventer et al 2016). Kratena and Streicher (2017) used the traditional IO, a static model, to analyse fiscal policy multipliers and spillovers in a multi-regional macroeconomy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Micro-simulations of a dynamic supply and use tables economy-wide Leontief-based model for the South African economy

Kavese

Phiri

2020

South African Journal of Economic and management Sciences

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Background: South Africa has not fully recovered from the 2008 global recession. The World Bank has predicted that South Africa will be one of the worst performers in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 with tepid growth of 1.3% which is far below the National Development Plan targets growth of 5.4% required a year to reduce unemployment, create decent jobs and generate enough revenue for social development. Aim:We aim to examine whether changes in the components of final demand (changes in government spending, household consumption expenditure, exports, investment spending) have a considerable effect on the sector's gross value added, job creation and tax revenue generation and whether there were changes in the exogenous final demand in die postrecession period.Setting: We focus on building supply and use tables based on 62 different sectors of the South African economy.Methods: An economy-wide Leontief multiplier-based model calibrated on a supply and use framework and a micro-simulation model is used to assess post-recession trends in macroeconomic, labour and fiscal multipliers for South Africa. Results:The simulations show that during the post-recession era, the effect of exogenous shock in the economy, like an increase in investment spending, although positive, yields a smaller return in terms of tax revenue, job creation and economic growth. At sector level, the results show that the inter-industry links and industry-consumer links have therefore weakened. Conclusion:Our findings imply that the persisting low growth trajectory associated with weaker inter-industry linkages could be exacerbated, while the fiscal austerity measures associated with weaker forward and backword tax linkages could be prolonged. We recommend government should follow a priorities-based spending policy that yields optimal socioeconomic returns.

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Analysis of the South African input-output table to determine sector specific economic impacts: A study on real estate

Cited by 2 publications

References 4 publications

A dynamic, stochastic, Bayesian, provincial input–output model for the South African economy

A dynamic, stochastic, Bayesian, provincial input–output model for the South African economy

Micro-simulations of a dynamic supply and use tables economy-wide Leontief-based model for the South African economy

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