Analysis of Tree-Ring Chronologies in Coniferous Forests of Southeastern Kazakhstan

Abstract

The aim of the present research was to study the spatial and temporal patterns in the growth response of spruce to climate change at different altitudes (upper, middle and lower) of mountainous terrain in Southern Kazakhstan. The analysis of the climatic response of the generalized chronologies was carried out by calculating the correlation coefficients (Rs) between the growth indices and monthly precipitations and air temperatures for the period during which the influence of climatic factors on the annual radial increment of wood was possible. This is especially important in cases where there are no assumptions about the possible influence of climatic factors on the growth of woody plants in specific conditions. According to the research, correlation and response analysis shows that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from July 2015 to June 2016 was the main factor limiting the radial growth of Schrenk spruce. The PDSI showed markedly prolonged and rapid hydration from 1980 to 2005 but declined after 2005. There have been three particularly dry years over the past decade (2008, 2014 and 2015). The chronologies have been reconstructed by the PDSI for the last 189 years for the Dzungarian Alatau. A calibration model from 1950 to 2011 explains 42.6% of the actual PDSI variance. The reconstructed PDSI reflects the severe droughts of the 1910s and 1940s that were widespread in the arid zones of Central Asia. The extremely dry years in the 1910s and 1940s are especially noticeable. A ten-year analysis shows that in five periods, i.

Influence of Climatic Changes on the Dendrochronological Features of Tugai Forests along the Syr Darya and Ili Rivers in the Territory of Kazakhstan

“…Drilling cores were used for dendrochronological analysis. With their help, radial cores of wood with a diameter of 4-5mm and a length of 10-50cm were drilled [4]. The cores were taken along one or more radii strictly oriented in relation to the cardinal directions or in a random direction.…”

“…Employing tree-ring analysis correctly enables the exploration of the natural variability of environmental and climatic factors in the past and the projection of future global changes in the natural environment [4,5].…”

Application of Wireless Sensor Networks to Prevent the Spread of Forest Fires

“…Over the past decades, global temperatures have increased by 0.8°C and the climate system is now on track to increase the global average temperature to +4°C, although the Paris Agreement 2015 defines a safe maximum temperature increase to +2°C [1]. According to forecasts, negative changes in weather conditions should be expected on the territory of Russia, given the fire danger: increase in air temperature, shift of seasons, increase in the duration of vegetation and fire periods, frequency and intensity of heatwaves and natural hydrometeorological phenomena, and changes in water resources of local drains [2].…”