Analytic models for SIR disease spread on random spatial networks

Lang, John; Sterck, Hans De; Kaiser, Jamieson L.; Miller, Joel C.

doi:10.1093/comnet/cny004

Cited by 37 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 69 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This particular type of propagation can be modeled by a network of entities, whose links among entities enable exchange patterns over space and time. These models have been used for instance to analyze disease spread [7,41,50] and diffusion on social media [27].…”

Section: Characterizing Spatio-temporal Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Geographical Propagation Visualizations

Peña-Araya

Bezerianos

Pietriga

2020

Proceedings of the 2020 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Geographical propagation phenomena occur in multiple domains, such as in epidemiology and social media. Propagation dynamics are often complex, and visualizations play a key role in helping subject-matter experts understand and analyze them. However, there is little empirical data about the effectiveness of the various strategies used to visualize geographical propagation. To fill this gap, we conduct an experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of three strategies: an animated map, smallmultiple maps, and a single map with glyphs. We compare them under five tasks that vary in one of the following dimensions: propagation scope, direction, speed, peaks, and spatial jumps. Our results show that small-multiple maps perform best overall, but that the effectiveness of each visualization varies depending on the task considered.

show abstract

Section: Characterizing Spatio-temporal Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of Geographical Propagation Visualizations

Peña-Araya

Bezerianos

Pietriga

2020

Proceedings of the 2020 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this section, we outline the components of our individually-based network transmission model, which extends a previously published individual-based TB model of coupled household and community transmission [ 10 ] by introducing spatially structured community contact networks adapted from [ 11 ]. Specifically, we extended the Gaussian community contact network from [ 11 ] to include household transmission. Further, we extended the natural history model from [ 10 ] to include TB transmission across the network and added in separate intervention (e.g., treatment) compartments.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… (A) Schematic of Network Structure (top): All individuals are fully connected within their households. Individuals form community contacts based on a Gaussian (normally distributed) connectivity kernel [ 11 ]. Networks consist of 100,000 individuals divided evenly into 20,000 households.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There is an emerging consensus that achieving global tuberculosis control targets will require more proactive case finding approaches than are currently used in high-incidence settings. Household contact tracing (HHCT), for which households of newly diagnosed cases are actively screened for additional infected individuals is a potentially efficient approach to finding new cases of tuberculosis, however randomized trials assessing the population-level effects of such interventions in settings with sustained community transmission have shown mixed results. One potential explanation for this is that household transmission is responsible for a variable proportion of population-level tuberculosis burden between settings. For example, transmission is more likely to occur in households in settings with a lower tuberculosis burden and where individuals mix preferentially in local areas, compared with settings with higher disease burden and more dispersed mixing. To better understand the relationship between endemic incidence levels, social mixing, and the impact of HHCT, we developed a spatially explicit model of coupled household and community transmission. We found that the impact of HHCT was robust across settings of varied incidence and community contact patterns. In contrast, we found that the effects of community contact tracing interventions were sensitive to community contact patterns. Our results suggest that the protective benefits of HHCT are robust and the benefits of this intervention are likely to be maintained across epidemiological settings.

show abstract

“…Small world networks 21 was first introduced in epidemiology by 1 for understanding epidemic spread on networks. Since then, there has been substantial interest in using Small World Networks in modeling specialized disease outbreaks 15 , 16 , 19 . To the best of our knowledge, no study has attempted to understand the spread of COVID19 on small world networks.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suppress, and Not Just Flatten: Strategies for Rapid Suppression of COVID19 Transmission in Small World Communities

Bhattacharyya

Vinay

2020

J Indian Inst Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many countries have introduced Lockdowns to contain the COVID19 epidemic. Lockdowns, though an effective policy for containment, imposes a heavy cost on the economy as it enforces extreme social distancing measures on the whole population. The objective of this note is to study alternatives to Lockdown which are either more targeted or allows partial opening of the economy. Cities are often spatially organized into wards. We introduce Multi-lattice small world (MLSW) network as a model of a city where each ward is represented by a 2D lattice and each vertex in the latex represents an agent endowed with SEIR dynamics. Through simulation studies on MLSW, we examine a variety of candidate suppression policies and find that restricting Lockdowns to infected wards can indeed out-perform global Lockdowns in both reducing the attack rate and also shortening the duration of the epidemic. Even policies such as partial opening of the economy, such as Two-Day Work Week, can be competitive if augmented with extensive Contact Tracing.

show abstract

Analytic models for SIR disease spread on random spatial networks

Cited by 37 publications

References 69 publications

A Comparison of Geographical Propagation Visualizations

A Comparison of Geographical Propagation Visualizations

Protective impacts of household-based tuberculosis contact tracing are robust across endemic incidence levels and community contact patterns

Suppress, and Not Just Flatten: Strategies for Rapid Suppression of COVID19 Transmission in Small World Communities

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About