Analytical Framework for a Risk-based Estimation of Climate Change Effects on Mine Site Runoff Water Quality

Abstract

A conceptual analytical framework was developed for the risk-based estimation of climate change effects on mine waste runoff water quality. The modeling approach incorporates temporal variability in both precipitation and temperature using trend analyses from historical datasets and the resulting effects on water balances and geochemical weathering rates. A case-study method was used to develop and present the model for regions near the city of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada. Timeresolved relative precipitation and weathering factors can be calculated using climate data and site-specific estimates regarding mine waste properties. Interpretation of these factors allows an assessment of when the period of highest analyte concentrations are expected to occur under a given risk scenario over a modeling timeframe, whether low precipitation or warming effects are more important in determining water quality issues, and the relative magnitudes of water quality under differing risk scenarios.

Mine Wastes

“…The predicted increase in global temperature is also expected to increase the rates of mine waste weathering about 1.3-fold higher than present by the year 2100 (Nordstrom 2009;Rayne et al 2009). The predicted increase in global temperature is also expected to increase the rates of mine waste weathering about 1.3-fold higher than present by the year 2100 (Nordstrom 2009;Rayne et al 2009).…”

An Anthropocene species of trouble? Negative synergies between earth system change and geological destratification

“…Further problems have been identified with coastal mines at risk of sea level rise (Holden, 2015: 252), and in arctic regions where thawing permafrost subverts assumptions that mining waste can be permanently stabilised by freezing conditions (Hird, 2017; Northey et al, 2017). Accelerating geochemical weathering rates resulting from increased temperature variation can also trigger mass movement of rock in current or former mining sites (Northey et al, 2017; Phillips, 2016; Rayne et al, 2009).…”

Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Climate Change Multi-Risk Assessment in the Mining Industry

“…Yet, most of the published climate change-related studies either focus on selected hazards or narrow their range to targeted sectors or scientific communities. Among them, only a few studies focus on the mining sector, such as the study of Rayne et al [58], who developed a risk-based estimation of climate change effects on mine waste runoff water quality or the study of Chen et al [59], who created a spatial framework specifically for flooding risk assessment in Australian coal mines, combining several climatic, environmental, and hydrological data obtained from daily time-series observations. Similarly, Liu et al [60] developed a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology for assessing flooding hazard and its impact on coal mines at the regional scale, using Bayesian network and remote sensing techniques.…”