Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

Abstract

Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model.

Historical Arable Land Change in an Eco-Fragile Area: A Case Study in Zhenlai County, Northeastern China

“…Taking the topographic maps as the references, the spatial distribution of the reconstructed arable land accounts for 47.79% (almost half) of that in the topographic maps, which seems good, but still has space to advance. Yet, it is possible that any precise measurement of simulation accuracy is unattainable due to time point inconsistencies concerning land category definitions [48]. This inaccuracy could be explained as follows.…”

“…It is also said that the increasing annual average temperature and decreasing annual rainfall in Zhenlai County over the past century resulted in high evaporation and frequent droughts. These brought serious damage to natural ecosystems such as grassland and wetland [48]. Eventually, national political decisions that led to the agricultural land transition were also influenced by a perception of ecological degradation.…”

Large-Scale Marsh Loss Reconstructed from Satellite Data in the Small Sanjiang Plain since 1965: Process, Pattern and Driving Force

“…Firstly, once a marsh is destroyed by human beings, it tends to stay stable. For example, once a marsh is converted to cultivated land and settlement, it usually maintains a stable status [24]. Secondly, the proportion of marsh changes caused by human disturbances in period 1 and those induced by natural evolution in period 2 was small.…”

“…However, the unavailability of satellite data before 1972 has become a constraint for monitoring historical land-use patterns during this period. Usually, Sensors 2020, 20, 1036 2 of 17 model reconstruction, e.g., using a Cellular Automata (CA) model to reconstruct historical land-use patterns, was the main method to obtain historical land-use maps before 1972 [23,24]. However, model reconstruction is accompanied by uncertainty to some extent.…”

Recent methods, sources and approaches in the study of temporal landscape change at different scales - a review

“…They include information about land-use at certain times, extent of forests, meadows, pastures, cultivated fields, livestock and other types of spatial data that can be transformed and used in the analysis of changes in landscape (Török, P. et al 2010). In other words, these historical data can be used in the reconstruction of past landscapes (Yang, Y. et al 2017). Historical data can be used to study when physical landscape attributes appeared, how they developed, changed and disappeared and sometimes also reappeared.…”