Analyzing ranch profitability from varying cow sales and heifer replacement rates for beef cow-calf production using system dynamics

Turner, Benjamín L.; Rhoades, Ryan; Tedeschi, L. O.; Hanagriff, Roger D.; McCuistion, K. C.; Dunn, Barry H.

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2012.07.009

Cited by 38 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Marketing decisions, such as culling cows from the herd, play an important role in determining profitability on a farm (Turner et al, 2013). Increasing cow sales in certain years, because of drought, had a major impact in those years, but in general the overall consequence was more variable agro-ecosystems.…”

Section: Economic Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficiency and stability in subtropical beef cattle grazing systems in the northwest of Argentina

Nasca

Feldkamp

Arroquy

et al. 2015

Agricultural Systems

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Section: Economic Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficiency and stability in subtropical beef cattle grazing systems in the northwest of Argentina

Nasca

Feldkamp

Arroquy

et al. 2015

Agricultural Systems

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“…Although no SD model will recreate reality, it can be deemed useful for its intended purpose (in our case scenario testing to investigate acequia community's places of resilience and vulnerability) upon successful model evaluation [51,59]. (Table 5) of the acequia model was comparable to other SD models (e.g., [53][54][55][56][57][58]. Although no SD model will recreate reality, it can be deemed useful for its intended purpose (in our case scenario testing to investigate acequia community's places of resilience and vulnerability) upon successful model evaluation [51,59].…”

Section: Calibration Analysis Of Behavior Reproduction and Theil Ineqmentioning

confidence: 84%

Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks

et al. 2016

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Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands) and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances) embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per animal unit or percentage of normal acequia ditch seepage) which created less variable system responses but which utilized similar pathways to that of the socio-cultural processes (e.g., socio-cultural or physical parameter change → agricultural profit → time in spent in agriculture → effect on socio-cultural or physical processes). These processes also linked through acequia mutualism to create the greatest variability in system outputs compared to the remainder of tests. Results also point to the important role of community mutualism in sustaining linkages between natural and human systems that increase resilience to stressors. Future work will explore scenario development and testing, integration with upland and downstream models, and comparative analyses between acequia communities with distinct social and landscape characteristics.

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“…A detailed description of the methodology is presented by Forrester (1968). This methodology has been applied into various fields, including environmental sustainability (Forrester, 1961(Forrester, , 1968, environmental management (Mashayekhi, 1990), transport and land use planning (Heimgartner, 2001;Shen et al, 2009;Luo et al, 2010), mining ressources (Elshkaki, 2013), land and water resource planning (Ford, 1996;Zarghami and Akbariyeh, 2012), ecological modelling (Li et al, 2012), agricultural sustainability (Saysel et al, 2002;Turner et al, 2013), regional planning and management (Guo et al, 2001).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, an integrated analysis taken into account the aspects of land availability, land suitability, soybean demand and supply and other socio-economic aspects need to be considered. The dynamic system modelling can facilitate the integration of these aspects (Liu et al, 2007;Ferretti and Pomarico, 2013;Russel et al, 2013;Turner et al, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic System Modelling and Land Suitability to Define Priority Areas of Soybean Plantation in Paddy Fields in Karawang, West Java

Widiatmaka

Ambarwulan²,

Firmansyah³

et al. 2014

Agrivita.J.Agr.Sci

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One of the agricultural public commodities in Indonesia which still can not fulfill the domestic consumption needs is soybean. The objectives of this research were: (i) to identify the suitable area for soybean plantation in paddy fields, (ii) to assess the development of soybeans in land use and socio-economic context, and (iii) to plan the spatial plantation of soybean. A land evaluation for soybean was completed. IKONOS imagery was analyzed to delineate paddy fields, while a dynamic system modelling was developed integrating physical and socio-economic aspects. The research results showed that the land suitability class for soybean plantation in the paddy fields in Karawang Regency ranged from not suitable (N) to suitable (S2), with limiting factors such as temperature, fertility, nutrients retention, slope, erosion, rooting media and toxicity. Very limited arable land has been used actually for soybeans plantation due to low economic returns. The model predicts that if the development of soybean continues in its business as usual path, a deficit of soybean will increase in 2030. The model provides alternative scenarios to reduce the deficit. Prioritization was done spatially using the suitable land gradually.

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Analyzing ranch profitability from varying cow sales and heifer replacement rates for beef cow-calf production using system dynamics

Cited by 38 publications

References 13 publications

Efficiency and stability in subtropical beef cattle grazing systems in the northwest of Argentina

Efficiency and stability in subtropical beef cattle grazing systems in the northwest of Argentina

Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks

Dynamic System Modelling and Land Suitability to Define Priority Areas of Soybean Plantation in Paddy Fields in Karawang, West Java

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