Anatomy of a Rally Effect: George W. Bush and the War on Terrorism

Abstract

The “rally-round-the-flag effect” sparked by the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington and by President George W. Bush's prompt launching of the War on Terrorism cries out for the kind of timely analysis that political scientists sometimes can provide. A rally effect is the sudden and substantial increase in public approval of the president that occurs in response to certain kinds of dramatic international events involving the United States. The September 11 rally effect is distinctive for at least three reasons. First, of all the recorded rally effects, it is the largest. Bush's approval rating soared in the Gallup Poll from 51% on September 10 to 86% on September 15.The president's approval rating is the percentage of survey respondents who answer “approve” to the question: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job [name] is doing as president?” This 35-point increase nearly doubles the previous record, the 18-point boost triggered by his father's launch of Operation Desert Storm in January 1991. Second, the further increase in Bush's approval rating to 90% on September 22 represents the highest rating ever recorded for a president (Morin 2001). Third, the September 11 rally effect has lasted longer than any in the history of polling. As of November 10, 2002, Bush's approval rating was 68%—22 points below its peak but still much higher than his rating 13 months earlier.

Wars, Presidents, and Popularity: The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined

“…__________________ Ostrom and Simon (1989) and Marra et al (1990) does not affect our findings. 13 Some scholars argue that 9/11 had a slowly decaying effect on presidential approval (e.g., Gaines, 2002;Hetherington and Nelson, 2003). Yet, Eichenberg and Stoll (2006) estimate the event's duration at 15 weeks using New York Times news coverage data.…”

Contingency and Political Action: The Role of Leadership in Endogenously Created Crises

“…The rally round the flag effect provided unprecedented support for G. W. Bush in his new, war president role (Eichenberg, Stoll, & Lebo, 2006;Hetherington & Nelson, 2003): he became temporarily charismatic (Greenstein, 2008). President Bush gave a determined policy-answer, by setting up new authorities and agencies (Department of Homeland Security) as well as by passing through new legislation (US Patriot Act) and by using Presidential War Power, based on Constitutional tradition but also legitimized by Congressional authorization acts.…”

Predispositions and Public Support for the President During the War on Terrorism

“…2. These categories include the initiation of foreign military intervention, a major diplomatic action, notable technological developments related to defense, major summit meetings, and important developments in ongoing military conflicts (Mueller 1973;Hetherington and Nelson 2003). launch of Sputnik, the Cuban missile crisis, the taking of hostages in Iran, and other similar events.…”

“…9;Kernell 1978;Erikson, Mackuen, and Stimson 2002, p. 57), after the initial surge ratings of Bush begin to slowly revert toward their previous levels (Brody 2003). 8,9 But this surge was unusually long-lasting (Hetherington and Nelson 2003;Jacobson 2003), with only a portion dissipating by the time of the 2002 congressional elections. Support for Bush remained higher than it had been prior to the initial terrorist attacks.…”