Ancient Greek colonization in retrospect: population projections from the birth of colonies

Abstract

Greek colonization (8th-5th c. BC) was one of the most momentous demographic and socio-cultural events in ancient Europe, spreading people, goods, art, ideas, and lifestyles across the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This paper evaluates the demographic developments that followed this historical process by applying classical methods of demographic projections (Preston et al. 2001). In this exploratory analysis, we use the Corinthian colony of Ambracia as a case study, estimating the most probable trajectories of population change throughout the three centuries. We developed numerous fixed demographic scenarios with the cohort component method and varying fertility, mortality, and migration levels. From these scenarios, we present the most likely ones following historical references and archaeological data.