Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons

Anderegg, William R. L.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Anderegg, Leander D. L.; Bielory, Leonard; Kinney, Patrick L.; Ziska, Lewis H.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2013284118

Cited by 180 publications

(112 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Increasing temperature during the pre-season period is the main driver for advancement of spring and early summer flowering plants, with plant-specific reactions to the changes ( Menzel et al, 2020 ; Parmesan, 2007 ; Rojo et al, 2021 ). A recent North American study, evaluating continental pollen trends between 1990 and 2018, found that temperature was the strongest predictor of pollen season onset and explained 14–37% of the multi-decade variance ( Anderegg et al, 2021 ). There are still many open questions in phenology modelling of the start of flowering, especially the influence of chilling and photoperiod and to how plants will react to increasing temperatures in the future ( Basler, 2016 ; Fu et al, 2015 ; Güsewell et al, 2017 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since 1959, Switzerland has experienced an average annual warming of 0.35 °C/decade ( Ceppi et al, 2012 ). Given that climactic factors such as temperature are positively associated with plant growth, readiness for flowering, and pollen abundance ( Anderegg et al, 2021 ; Beggs, 2016 ; Clot et al, 2012 ; Dahl et al, 2013 ; Rojo et al, 2021 ), this longitudinal change is likely to have transformed the onset, duration, and intensity of pollen release. Pollen is an emerging public health risk; understanding more precisely how seasonal temporality and intensity are evolving has far-reaching implications for health system management, environmental planning, and public awareness.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-decade changes in pollen season onset, duration, and intensity: A concern for public health?

Glick

Gehrig

Eeftens

2021

Science of The Total Environment

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Longitudinal shifts in pollen onset, duration, and intensity are public health concerns for the growing number of individuals with pollen sensitization. National analyses of long-term pollen changes are influenced by how a plant's main pollen season (MPS) is defined. Prior Swiss studies have inconsistently applied MPS definitions, leading to heterogeneous conclusions regarding the magnitude, directionality, and significance of multi-decade pollen trends. We examined national pollen data in Switzerland between 1990 and 2020, applying six MPS definitions (2 percentage-based and 4 threshold-based) to twelve relevant allergenic plants. We analyzed changes in pollen season using both linear regression and locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS). For 4 of the 12 plant species, there is unanimity between definitions regarding earlier onset of pollen season ( p < 0.05), with magnitude of 31-year change dependent on specific MPS definition (hazel: 9–18 days; oak: 5–13 days; grasses: 8–25 days; and nettle/hemp: 6–25 days). There is also consensus ( p < 0.05) for modified MPS duration among hazel (21–104% longer), nettle/hemp (8–52% longer), and ash (18–38% shorter). Between-definition agreement is highest for MPS intensity analysis, with consensus for significant increases in seasonal pollen quantity ( p < 0.05) among hazel, birch, oak, beech, and nettle/hemp. The largest relative intensification is noted for hazel (110–146%) and beech (162–237%). LOESS analysis indicates that these multi-decade pollen changes are typically nonlinear. The robustness of MPS definitions is highly dependent on annual pollen accumulation, with definition choice particularly influential for long-term analysis of low-pollen plants such as ragweed. We identify systematic differences between MPS definitions and suggest future aerobiologic studies apply multiple definitions to minimize bias. In summary, national pollen onset, duration, and intensity have shifted for some plants in Switzerland, with MPS definition choice affecting magnitude and significance of these variations. Future public health research can determine whether these temporal and quantitative pollen changes correlate with longitudinal differences in population pollen sensitization.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-decade changes in pollen season onset, duration, and intensity: A concern for public health?

Glick

Gehrig

Eeftens

2021

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Climate change has greatly impacted the onset, duration and intensity of the pollen season in recent decades, leading to an increase in exposure to some allergenic pollen species such as birch, hazel, oak, beech, and nettle and hemp families in Switzerland (1,2). Similar shifts have been observed in other countries (3,4). At the same time, allergies to airborne pollen are increasingly common in Europe (5,6), and prevalence in Switzerland has risen from around 0.82% in 1926 to between 14 and 20%, as estimated by more recent studies (7)(8)(9)(10).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Rationale and Design of a Panel Study Investigating Six Health Effects of Airborne Pollen: The EPOCHAL Study

Bürgler

Glick

Hartmann

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

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Background: While airborne pollen is widely recognized as a seasonal cause of sneezing and itchy eyes, its effects on pulmonary function, cardiovascular health, sleep quality, and cognitive performance are less well-established. It is likely that the public health impact of pollen may increase in the future due to a higher population prevalence of pollen sensitization as well as earlier, longer, and more intense pollen seasons, trends attributed to climate change. The effects of pollen on health outcomes have previously been studied through cross-sectional design or at two time points, namely preceding and within the period of pollen exposure. We are not aware of any observational study in adults that has analyzed the dose-response relationship between daily ambient pollen concentration and cardiovascular, pulmonary, cognitive, sleep, or quality of life outcomes. Many studies have relied on self-reported pollen allergy status rather than objectively confirming pollen sensitization. In addition, many studies lacked statistical power due to small sample sizes or were highly restrictive with their inclusion criteria, making the findings less transferable to the “real world.”Methods: The EPOCHAL study is an observational panel study which aims to relate ambient pollen concentration to six specific health domains: (1) pulmonary function and inflammation; (2) cardiovascular outcomes (blood pressure and heart rate variability); (3) cognitive performance; (4) sleep; (5) health-related quality of life (HRQoL); and (6) allergic rhinitis symptom severity. Our goal is to enroll 400 individuals with diverse allergen sensitization profiles. The six health domains will be assessed while ambient exposure to pollen of different plants naturally varies. Health data will be collected through six home nurse visits (at approximately weekly intervals) as well as 10 days of independent tracking of blood pressure, sleep, cognitive performance, HRQoL, and symptom severity by participants. Through repeated health assessments, we aim to uncover and characterize dose-response relationships between exposure to different species of pollen and numerous acute health effects, considering (non-)linearity, thresholds, plateaus and slopes.Conclusion: A gain of knowledge in pollen-health outcome relationships is critical to inform future public health policies and will ultimately lead toward better symptom forecasts and improved personalized prevention and treatment.

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“…Across Spain, Jato et al (20) analysing data from four Spanish sites spanning 1993-2009, found a decrease in pollen season length and severity and related this to temperature increases. Recently, Anderegg et al (21) showed, for aggregation of 60 North American pollen monitoring sites, that pollen seasons were commencing significantly earlier, lasting longer and increasing in magnitude, but when pollen was considered in separate categories; weed, grass or trees, grass pollen showed no significant trend in the annual pollen integral. Whilst there is broad agreement amongst most studies that with climate change pollen levels in general are increasing, it is difficult to definitively link airborne pollen changes with temperature and rainfall changes, and to decouple land use changes from climate change (17,(22)(23)(24)(25).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Medium-Term Increases in Ambient Grass Pollen Between 1994-1999 and 2016-2020 in a Subtropical Climate Zone

et al. 2021

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Grass pollen is the major outdoor trigger of allergic respiratory diseases. Climate change is influencing pollen seasonality in Northern Hemisphere temperate regions, but many aspects of the effects on grass pollen remain unclear. Carbon dioxide and temperature rises could increase the distribution of subtropical grasses, however, medium term shifts in grass pollen in subtropical climates have not yet been analysed. This study investigates changes in grass pollen aerobiology in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia, between the two available monitoring periods, 1994-1999 and 2016-2020. Potential drivers of pollen change were examined including weather and satellite-derived vegetation indicators. The magnitude of the seasonal pollen index for grass showed almost a three-fold increase for 2016-2020 over 1994-1999. The number and proportion of high and extreme grass pollen days in the recent period increased compared to earlier monitoring. Statistically significant changes were also identified for distributions of CO2, satellite-derived seasonal vegetation health indices, and daily maximum temperatures, but not for minimum temperatures, daily rainfall, or seasonal fraction of green groundcover. Quarterly grass pollen levels were correlated with corresponding vegetation health indices, and with green groundcover fraction, suggesting that seasonal-scale plant health was higher in the latter period. The magnitude of grass pollen exposure in the subtropical region of Brisbane has increased markedly in the recent past, posing an increased environmental health threat. This study suggests the need for continuous pollen monitoring to track and respond to the possible effects of climate change on grass pollen loads.

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Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons

Cited by 180 publications

References 42 publications

Multi-decade changes in pollen season onset, duration, and intensity: A concern for public health?

Multi-decade changes in pollen season onset, duration, and intensity: A concern for public health?

Rationale and Design of a Panel Study Investigating Six Health Effects of Airborne Pollen: The EPOCHAL Study

Medium-Term Increases in Ambient Grass Pollen Between 1994-1999 and 2016-2020 in a Subtropical Climate Zone

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