Anthropogenic influence on compound dry and hot events in China based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Wu, Xuefeng; Hao, Zengchao; Zhang, Yu; Zhang, Xuan; Hao, Fang

doi:10.1002/joc.7473

Cited by 20 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…This translates to an approximately threefold increase in frequency, fivefold increase in duration, and fourfold increase in severity by the end of the 21st century relative to year 2019. A significant increasing pattern in CDHW characteristics is projected for the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) followed by moderate (SSP2-4.5) scenarios compared to the mild (SSP1-2.6) scenarios, which is consistent with recent literature ( 21 , 30 ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Compound drought and heatwaves (CDHWs) pose a severe threat to socioecological systems ( 1 , 2 ), leading to greater impacts, e.g., wildfires ( 3 ), agriculture ( 4 – 6 ), massive heat-related mortalities ( 7 , 8 ), and socioeconomic catastrophes ( 9 ), than individual extremes ( 10 ). In recent decades, CDHWs have increased globally ( 11 ), including Europe ( 12 – 14 ), the United States ( 15 ), South America ( 16 ), Australia ( 17 , 18 ), and Asia ( 19 – 22 ).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Tripathy

Mukherjee

Mishra

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Tripathy

Mukherjee

Mishra

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…It may be noted that several studies have acknowledged the uncertainties in the projected return periods of drought characteristics (duration, severity and peak) due to various factors such as the choice of drought index, GCMs and bias‐correction methods (Ju et al, 2021; Wu et al, 2022; Xu et al, 2019a,b). To quantify the uncertainty in the projections of precipitation extremes, a variance‐based sensitivity analysis method was employed by Xu et al (2019a,b).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, a comprehensive basin scale investigation of the spatial–temporal variation of compound events in the Godavari basin in peninsula India would be of great significance to address the challenges and prepare better for the emerging risks from compound events. Further, most of the available literature on compound events consider compound drought and heatwave (Chen et al, 2019; Wu et al, 2022; Zscheischler and Fischer, 2020), compound wind and precipitation (Martius et al, 2016; Y. Zhang et al, 2021), compound heavy rainfall and upstream‐downstream extreme river flow (Tao et al, 2022) and compound floods in coastal area (Fang et al, 2020; Wahl et al, 2015). Very few studies are available considering compound extremes events based on the extreme climatic indices at the basin scale (Xu and Zhang, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Joint probabilistic behaviour of climate extremes over the Godavari River basin, India

Kumar,

Das,

Mandal

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change has an adverse effect on the global hydrological cycle and hence climatic extremes are becoming more persistent. Therefore, the present study analyses the characteristics of the compound extremes in India using the Godavari River basin as a test bed. The study examines the individual return period (IRP) and pairwise joint return period (JRP) of several climate extreme indices such as consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), percentage rainfall of very dry days (R5Tot) and very hot days (TX95) considering historical and future period of two scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, from the CMIP6 consortium. Both SSPs indicates an upward trend in the indices for CWD and TX95, whilst showcasing a declining trend for CDD and R5Tot at 5% significance level. Under SSP585, the values of JRPs , , and ranges from 3 to 5 years, 14–55 years, 35–274 years and 104 to >1000 during epoch‐1 (2023–2060). During epoch‐2 (2061–2100), the JRPs values are generally higher. Regions displaying lower JRPs values suggest a higher likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes such as floods and droughts, as well as very dry days and warm days within the same year. Under SSP585, the maximum (minimum) value of change rate (CR) of JRP for and during epoch‐1 is more than 900% (−80%) and 1000% (−90%), whereas during epoch‐2, the corresponding CR values are greater than 700% (−80%) and 1000% (−90%). The future possibility of co‐occurrence of ‘CDD and CWD’ and ‘R5Tot and TX95’, both exceeding their 10‐ and 25‐year IRP, in a single year, is highly likely for the regions with low CR values and unlikely for the regions with high CR values. The study would help in understanding the spatial and temporal variability of compound climate extremes over the Godavari River basin.

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“…Yaddanapudi et al (2022) examined future projections of CWPE events for the coastal areas impacted by tropical cyclones on a global scale using CMIP6 models. Based on the CMIP6 models, Wu et al (2022) and Meng et al (2022) evaluated the future changes of compound dry and hot events and CWPEs in China, respectively. It can be seen that CWPEs have received increasing attention in recent years and there has been a gradual increase in the study of such compound extreme events using the CMIP6 model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound wind and precipitation extremes at a global scale based on CMIP6 models: Evaluation, projection and uncertainty

Zhu,

Yang,

Tang

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) amplify risk to human health, socio‐economic and ecological systems relative to their single extreme meteorological events. Given the rise in weather and climate extremes resulting from global warming, it is crucial to evaluate the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to capture this bivariate compound event and explore projected changes of CWPEs in the future under different climate‐change scenarios—the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. In this study, we first evaluate 14 CMIP6 models at a global scale using the ERA5 reanalysis data set spanning 1979–2014. Overall, some of the CMIP6 models, especially the multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM), can reasonably capture CWPEs during the historical period, with more CWPEs in the northern and southern hemispheres during their respective cold seasons. However, the MMEM tends to overestimate CWPEs in some land areas and show underestimation in some oceanic regions. Then we compute projected changes of CWPEs in periods 1 (2041–2070) and 2 (2071–2100) under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. Low emission scenarios effectively mitigate the long‐term increase in future CWPEs. The occurrence of CWPEs will change significantly with the increase of emissions during period 2, particularly in polar regions. Finally, we quantify the uncertainty for global future projections of CWPE changes. The main sources of uncertainty are internal variability and model uncertainty, but the contribution of scenario uncertainty will increase as time progresses. Overall, our results provide useful information to cope with CWPEs' global impact, emphasizing the importance of incorporating the compound nature of weather and climate extremes in future climate projections.

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Anthropogenic influence on compound dry and hot events in China based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Cited by 20 publications

References 81 publications

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Joint probabilistic behaviour of climate extremes over the Godavari River basin, India

Compound wind and precipitation extremes at a global scale based on CMIP6 models: Evaluation, projection and uncertainty

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