Anticipatory Governance for Preventing and Mitigating Catastrophic and Existential Risks

2023

Risk Analysis

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Two key shortcomings of national risk assessments (NRAs) are: (1) lack of justification and transparency around important foundational assumptions of the process, (2) omission of almost all the largest scale risks. Using a demonstration set of risks, we illustrate how NRA process assumptions around time horizon, discount rate, scenario choice, and decision rule impact on risk characterization and therefore any subsequent ranking. We then identify a neglected set of large‐scale risks that are seldom included in NRAs, namely global catastrophic risks and existential threats to humanity. Under a highly conservative approach that considers only simple probability and impact metrics, the use of significant discount rates, and harms only to those currently alive at the time, we find these risks have likely salience far greater than their omission from national risk registers might suggest. We highlight the substantial uncertainty inherent in NRAs and argue that this is reason for more engagement with stakeholders and experts. Widespread engagement with an informed public and experts would legitimize key assumptions, encourage critique of knowledge, and ease shortcomings of NRAs. We advocate for a deliberative public tool that can support informed two‐way communication between stakeholders and governments. We outline the first component of such a tool for communication and exploration of risks and assumptions. The most important factors for an “all hazards” approach to NRA are ensuring license for key assumptions and that all the salient risks are included before proceeding to ranking of risks and considering resource allocation and value.

Section: An Interactive Public National Risk Communication and Engage...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assumptions, uncertainty, and catastrophic/existential risk: National risk assessments need improved methods and stakeholder engagement

Boyd¹,

2023

Risk Analysis

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“…However, maximizing resilience should not be the only goal, and cost-effectiveness analyses and prioritization across the spectrum of intervention for prevention, resilience, and recovery should occur, accounting for cobenefits beyond GCR minimization. This analysis package should be public and overseen by an apolitical central entity such as a commissioner for extreme risks (Boyd & Wilson, 2021a), helping to ensure that efficiency considerations do not dominate over resilience.…”

Section: A C K N O W L E D G M E N T Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes

Boyd¹,

2022

Risk Analysis

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Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun‐reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot‐collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self‐sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macroindices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case‐study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands’ favorable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socioecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with cobenefits, which may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.

“…However, maximising resilience should not be the only goal, cost-effectiveness analyses and prioritisation across the spectrum of intervention for prevention, resilience and recovery should occur, accounting for co-bene ts beyond GCR minimisation. This analysis package should be public and overseen by an apolitical central entity such as a commissioner for extreme risks (Boyd & Wilson, 2021a), helping to ensure that e ciency considerations don't dominate over resilience.…”

Section: Conclusion and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophes

Boyd¹,

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun-reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well-placed to help reboot collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self-sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macro-indices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case-study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands’ favourable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socio-ecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with co-benefits, that may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.