Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐Century Wildfire Climate

Melia, Nathanael; Dean, S. M.; Pearce, H. Grant; Harrington, Luke J.; Frame, David J.; Strand, Tara

doi:10.1029/2022ef002853

Cited by 16 publications

(20 citation statements)

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“…Climate mitigation policies that incentivize the latter are therefore at risk of maladaptive outcomes (Anderegg et al, 2020). In light of New Zealand's unique geography and industry, further research is needed on the particular risks to exotic plantations in New Zealand (Macinnis-Ng et al, 2021), but uncertainty warrants a precautionary approach to future climate-related risks like windthrow and wildfire (Moore and Watt, 2015;Melia et al, 2022). For unharvested forests (otherwise known as carbon farming), these risks may increase if active forest management is not undertaken, which may occur if forest managers lack sufficient cash reserves when sequestration rates slow and cashflow diminishes.…”

Section: Relevance For Nbs Policy and Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using long-term experimental restoration of agroecosystems in Aotearoa New Zealand to improve implementation of Nature-based Solutions for climate change mitigation

Buckley

Hall²,

Jarvis³

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Tree planting has long played a major role in the New Zealand Government’s approach to climate mitigation and is increasingly understood as important for climate adaptation. However, large-scale tree planting in Aotearoa New Zealand has been dominated by exotic species. Although there is growing public and expert support for using native species for forest revegetation in farm landscapes, there are two key barriers. First, the lack of ecological and economic data on native species performance in different environmental conditions. Second, policy and market-related mechanisms associated with carbon sequestration, such as the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, favor the continuing use of exotic tree species, especially Pinus radiata, over native species. Consequently, there are strong incentives for exotic forests and insufficient financial support for natives, even when native forest re-establishment is often the preference of landowners, Indigenous peoples, and local communities. The AUT Living Laboratories Program is a long-term, transdisciplinary, experimental restoration research program aimed at addressing scientific, social, and economic knowledge gaps for native revegetation as a Nature-based Solution (NbS) on farmland soils. Here, we present the project design and establishment information from the three experimental restoration sites, which vary in native species composition, planting configuration, and environmental and socio-cultural context. Each site involves partnerships with Indigenous communities, specifically Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei, Ngāti Manuhiri, and Ngāti Pāoa, to value and embed mātauranga Māori as Indigenous knowledge. Monitoring carbon sequestration along with changes in ecological functions and outcomes, including native biodiversity, will be critical to ensure that large-scale tree-planting aligns with the government’s strategies for climate change, native biodiversity, and economic prosperity.

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Section: Relevance For Nbs Policy and Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using long-term experimental restoration of agroecosystems in Aotearoa New Zealand to improve implementation of Nature-based Solutions for climate change mitigation

Buckley

Hall²,

Jarvis³

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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“…Many of the Special Collection papers focused on intensification of the fire regime in specific regions due to climate warming, anthropogenic influences, or a combination thereof. Melia et al (2022) combined climate modeling with daily observations of weather and fire conditions to simulate 21st-century fire-weather conditions for Aotearoa (New Zealand). They concluded that more severe, even extreme, wildfire weather will become possible in regions previously unaffected by this type of fire weather, even matching conditions recorded during the "very extreme" fire-season length and intensity in Australia over the 2019-2020 austral summer.…”

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They concluded that more severe, even extreme, wildfire weather will become possible in regions previously unaffected by this type of fire weather, even matching conditions recorded during the "very extreme" fire-season length and intensity in Australia over the 2019-2020 austral summer. Melia et al (2022) also discussed the implications of the increasing fire risk for financial investments in tree plantations and governmental strategies for planting trees to reduce climate change. Kemter et al (2021, also discussed below) emphasized that climate change is projected to increase the frequency of compounding events such as the extreme drought, fire, and intense rain that occurred in the cascade of hazards affecting Australia in 2019-2020.…”

Section: Recent Past and Future Evolution Of Fire Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

et al. 2023

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Fire has always been an important component of many ecosystems, but anthropogenic global climate change is now altering fire regimes over much of Earth's land surface, spurring a more urgent need to understand the physical, biological, and chemical processes associated with fire as well as its effects on human societies. In 2020, AGU launched a Special Collection that spanned 10 journals, soliciting papers under the theme “Fire in the Earth System” to encourage state‐of‐the‐art publications in fire‐related science. The completed Special Collection comprises more than 100 papers. Here, we summarize the articles published in this collection, considering them to be grouped into seven themes: paleofire and its ties to climate; evolution of fire patterns in the recent past and the future, including the effects of ongoing climate change; physical (atmospheric) and chemical processes associated with fire; ecosystem effects, including on biogeochemical cycles; physical landscape change after fire and its associated hazards; fire effects on water quality, air quality, and human health; and new methods and technologies applied to fire research.

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“…154 While there is high uncertainty for climate-related risks for plantation forestry, there are reasonable concerns over issues such as windthrow, particularly in densely planted stands, 155 and wildfire as the frequency of fire weather increases along the east coast of Aotearoa New Zealand. 156 These pose material risks to forestry companies and farm businesses with small forests, which have relevance for associated investors and creditors. For example, the 2020 New Zealand Superannuation Fund Climate Change report identified timber investments as one of five investments with the greatest physical climate-related risk to its real assets.…”

Section: Concept Proposal: Climate Resilience Loansmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation Finance: Risks and Opportunities for Aotearoa New Zealand

Hall¹

2022

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Methodology: This report was developed through the co-design process of Mōhio’s Climate Innovation Lab, a fixed-term initiative which works with stakeholders to envision financial instruments to mobilise capital for climate-aligned projects and activities. A working paper was prepared through international market scanning and a review of primary and secondary literature on climate adaptation. This working paper became the basis for a workshop with local experts and stakeholders to test the viability of potential instruments in light of Aotearoa New Zealand’s unique cultural, biophysical and regulatory context. The workshop included participants from finance services, insurance, institutional investment, academia and local and central government observers. These insights were reincorporated into this final concept paper. Mōhio would like to thank the workshop participants for their time and expertise.

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Aotearoa New Zealand's 21st‐Century Wildfire Climate

Abstract: Although wildfires are a natural part of healthy ecosystems in some regions of the world, evidence is mounting that climate change is exacerbating the wildfire threat (

Cited by 16 publications

References 50 publications

Using long-term experimental restoration of agroecosystems in Aotearoa New Zealand to improve implementation of Nature-based Solutions for climate change mitigation

Using long-term experimental restoration of agroecosystems in Aotearoa New Zealand to improve implementation of Nature-based Solutions for climate change mitigation

Fire in the Earth System: Introduction to the Special Collection

Adaptation Finance: Risks and Opportunities for Aotearoa New Zealand

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