Application of Bayesian Techniques to Model the Burden of Human Salmonellosis Attributable to U.S. Food Commodities at the Point of Processing: Adaptation of a Danish Model

Abstract

Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decisionmaking in more than one country.

Enumeration of Salmonella and Campylobacter spp. in Environmental Farm Samples and Processing Plant Carcass Rinses from Commercial Broiler Chicken Flocks

“…almonella and Campylobacter cause an estimated 1.9 million food-borne illnesses in the United States each year (1), and poultry has been identified as a common source of the two pathogens (2)(3)(4). In a study ranking the importance of 104 different pathogen-food combinations with respect to their combined impact on the total cost of illness and loss of quality-adjusted life years, Campylobacter and Salmonella infections from poultry ranked first and fourth, respectively (5).…”

Novel Determinants of Intestinal Colonization of Salmonella enterica Serotype Typhimurium Identified in Bovine Enteric Infection

“…Cattle either clear the organism after resolution of disease or become persistently infected and continually shed Salmonella enterica in their feces (7). Approximately 30% of human cases of enteric salmonellosis originate from bovine sources (8). Therefore, knowledge of factors important for survival of Salmonella within the gastrointestinal tracts of cattle allows not only extrapolation to human disease but also the opportunity for creation of new strategies to reduce bovine colonization and thus reduce the contamination to the food supply and environment.…”

Epidemiology of a Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica Serovar Typhimurium Strain Associated with a Songbird Outbreak

“…Salmonellosis is also a significant source of enteric disease for people in the United States (5) and elsewhere (32), with the majority of cases originating from contaminated food (18). Infections with S. Typhimurium are one of the most frequent causes of salmonellosis in humans (22).…”