Applying a system approach to forecast the total hepatitis C virus‐infected population size: model validation using US data

Kershenobich, David; Razavi, Homie; Cooper, Curtis; Alberti, Alfredo; Dusheiko, Geoffrey; Pol, Stanislas; Zuckerman, Eli; Koike, Kazuhiko; Han, Kwang Hyub; Wallace, Carolyn; Zeuzem, Stefan; Negro, Francesco

doi:10.1111/j.1478-3231.2011.02535.x

Cited by 42 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(84 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The rates were adjusted for incremental increase in mortality due to injection drug use (IDU) and transfusion, as described previously [25]. Unless specified, a standard mortality ratio (SMR) of 10 (9.5-29.9) was used for the portion of the HCV-infected population who were active IDU between ages 15 and 44 [26][27][28][29][30][31].…”

Section: All-cause Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

Sibley¹,

Han²,

Abourached³

et al. 2014

Journal of Viral Hepatitis

408

327

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SUMMARY. The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

show abstract

Section: All-cause Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

Sibley¹,

Han²,

Abourached³

et al. 2014

Journal of Viral Hepatitis

408

327

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A better understanding of the epidemiology of viral hepatitis and the risk factors involved is among the priorities of any nation [15,16]. Reliable epidemiological data on prevalence rates and transmission routes [17,18] of viral hepatitis are essential for designing national control policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of hepatitis B and hepatitis C infection in Libya: results from a national population based survey

Daw

El-Bouzedi

2014

BMC Infect Dis

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundLibya is one of the largest countries in Africa and has the longest coast in the Mediterranean basin facing southern Europe. High rates of prevalence of viral hepatitis have been observed in various regions in Africa, but the prevalence in Libya is not well documented. We report on a large-scale nationwide study that evaluated the epidemiology of hepatitis B and hepatitis C in Libya and assessed the risk factors involved.MethodsA cross-sectional study was carried out in 2008 on 65,761 individuals all over Libya. The country was divided into 12 regions according to the population density and sampling within each region was carried out under the supervision of the National Centre for Prevention of Infectious Diseases. Serum samples were collected from both males and females of all ages in both urban and rural areas and tested for HBsAg for hepatitis B and anti-HCV antibody for hepatitis C. Prevalence rates were determined in regions and in different groups and correlated with different demographic and risk factors involved in the spread of these viruses.ResultsThe prevalence of hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses varied regionally across the country. The overall prevalence of hepatitis B was 2.2% (95% CI 2.1%-2.3%) and was higher among males than females (1.4:1.0). Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence was 1.2% (95% CI 1.1-1.3) and it increased gradually after the age of 30 years (0.7-0.9% for < 30 years; 3.6% for ≥ 60 years). Prevalence of HBsAg was 0.8-0.9% below the age of 10 years, and higher but similar in older age groups (2.3-2.7%). There was an association between literacy and prevalence of hepatitis, particularly for HCV. Hospital admission, surgical operation, blood transfusion, and intravenous drug use were the main risk factors, and they were associated independently with a higher prevalence rate of viral hepatitis.ConclusionsLibya may be considered an area of low-intermediate endemicity for hepatitis B virus infection, with lower rates in young age groups, and an area of low endemicity for hepatitis C. The prevalence of hepatitis B and C across Libya is not homogeneous, with indications of the effect of the higher rates in some neighbouring countries. Libya should adopt full coverage national plans and guidelines to face the future consequences of viral hepatitis, particularly hepatitis C virus.

show abstract

“…Although previous studies have estimated the future prevalence and cost of chronic HCV infection in the US, [31], [32], [33], [34], [35], [36], this is the first study to derive HCV-related AdvLD prevalence, disease progression, and mortality rates using recent adjudicated claims data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Future Disease Progression of the Chronic HCV Population in the United States

Zalesak¹,

Francis²,

Gedeon³

et al. 2013

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can lead to advanced liver disease (AdvLD), including cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and liver cancer. The aim of this study was to determine recent historical rates of HCV patient progression to AdvLD and to project AdvLD prevalence through 2015. We first determined total 2008 US chronic HCV prevalence from the National Health and Nutrition Evaluation Surveys. Next, we examined disease progression and associated non-pharmacological costs of diagnosed chronic HCV-infected patients between 2007–2009 in the IMS LifeLink and CMS Medicare claims databases. A projection model was developed to estimate AdvLD population growth through 2015 in patients diagnosed and undiagnosed as of 2008, using the 2007–2009 progression rates to generate a “worst case” projection of the HCV-related AdvLD population (i.e., scenario where HCV treatment is the same in the forecasted period as it was before 2009). We found that the total diagnosed chronic HCV population grew from 983,000 to 1.19 million in 2007–2009, with patients born from 1945–1964 accounting for 75.0% of all patients, 83.7% of AdvLD patients, and 79.2% of costs in 2009, indicating that HCV is primarily a disease of the “baby boomer” population. Non-pharmacological costs grew from $7.22 billion to $8.63 billion, with the majority of growth derived from the 60,000 new patients that developed AdvLD in 2007–2009, 91.5% of whom were born between 1945 and 1964. The projection model estimated the total AdvLD population would grow from 195,000 in 2008 to 601,000 in 2015, with 73.5% of new AdvLD cases from patients undiagnosed as of 2008. AdvLD prevalence in patients diagnosed as of 2008 was projected to grow 6.5% annually to 303,000 patients in 2015. These findings suggest that strategies to diagnose and treat HCV-infected patients are urgently needed to increase the likelihood that progression is interrupted, particularly for patients born from 1945–1964.

show abstract

Applying a system approach to forecast the total hepatitis C virus‐infected population size: model validation using US data

Cited by 42 publications

References 77 publications

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with today's treatment paradigm

Prevalence of hepatitis B and hepatitis C infection in Libya: results from a national population based survey

Current and Future Disease Progression of the Chronic HCV Population in the United States

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About