Applying Concepts and Tools in Demography for Estimating, Analyzing, and Forecasting Forced Migration

Abstract

Among demographic events (birth, death, and migration), migration is notably the most volatile component to forecast accurately. Accounting for forced migration is even more challenging given the difficulty in collecting forced migration data. Knowledge of trends and patterns of forced migration and its future trajectory is, however, highly relevant for policy planning for migrant sending and receiving areas. This paper aims to review existing methodological tools to estimate and forecast migration in demography and explore how they can be applied to the study of forced migration. It presents steps towards estimation of forced migration and future assessments, which comprise: (1) migration flows estimation methods using both traditional and nontraditional data; (2) empirical analysis of drivers of migration and migration patterns; and (3) forecasting migration based on multidimensional population projections and scenarios approach. The paper then discusses how these demographic methods and tools can be applied to estimate and forecast forced migration.

International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

“…Finally, due to its reliance on long-term economic optimization of households' well-being in equilibrium, our model is not capable of accounting for fast-onset shocks such as wars and civil conflicts, which can create forced migration flows in the short term. As a remedy to these shortcomings, future research in bilateral migration can build on our study by expanding its econometric model and including other traditional and nontraditional sources of migration data [41]. Future research can additionally expand and further enrich the structural model used in this study (i.e., the OLG model) by considering other sources of income and expenses, such as remittances and retirement savings.…”

“…Estimating future international migration patterns requires analysing bilateral migration patterns and behaviors in the past. The historical accounting of migration patterns, however, is a challenging task due to the lack of data, inconsistencies in measuring and reporting data, and other discrepancies [41]. Nevertheless, estimating historical bilateral migration flows is a relatively reliable approach for establishing historical patterns of migration between countries [42].…”

A combined cognitive and spatial model to map and understand climate-induced migration

“…Additionally, climate refugees are receiving increasing international attention, and forecasts predict the diasporas of millions of climate migrants in the coming years (Hoffmann et al, 2020;IOM & UN-OHRLLS, 2019;Muttarak, 2021). Particularly nowadays, due to efforts to meet sustainable development agendas such as the 2030 Agenda, migration has been recognized as a complex and multifaceted phenomenon affecting all social, economic, and environmental spheres, which must be addressed to achieve the SDGs, ensuring that they are carried out in an inclusive and recognized manner.…”

RawanArar and David ScottFitzGeraldThe Refugee SystemPolity, 2022, 272 p., $26.95

“…2019). Furthermore, alternative data sources (e.g., mobile and social media data) and advanced methods can potentially contribute to the improvement of refugee estimates (Muttarak 2021). Perhaps this is a new avenue enabling researchers to go beyond the use of a legal definition and explore how those living in refugeehood (e.g., immobile individuals, resettled refugees, returnees, and deportees) as presented in the systems approach can be accounted for.…”