Applying dynamic species distribution modelling to lek‐mating species

Abstract

Aim Lek‐mating species, in which males congregate to display and copulate with females, are of long‐standing behavioural, economic and conservation interest. Monitoring programs often target areas in which these species aggregate for mating (lek arenas) because of the often cryptic behaviours of these species when away from lek arenas. Due to survey methodologies and the ecology of many lek‐mating species, the building of species distribution models (SDMs) requires researchers to consider issues that are generally absent when modelling distributions of non‐lek‐mating species. We describe these considerations and illustrate the advantages of employing dynamic SDMs to address non‐equilibrium between a lek‐mating species (Lesser Prairie‐Chicken Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) and its environment. Location New Mexico, U.S.A. Methods We employed a 27‐year data set of 2771 lek surveys from a T. pallidicinctus metapopulation to build dynamic SDMs using multi‐season occupancy modelling. We considered covariates (1) indexing past abundance and distribution patterns expected to influence dispersal and local persistence, (2) describing landscape and weather dynamics expected to influence local recruitment, and (3) describing survey‐level conditions expected to influence lek attendance. Results The most supported dynamic SDM indicated an overall decline in occurrence and an ending distribution more restricted to the northern part of the 1222 km2 study area. Local colonization was best predicted by weather and landscape dynamics, while local extinction was best predicted by population processes and weather. Main conclusions Conservation of T. pallidicinctus will likely face challenges from (1) the reduced likelihood of colonization in areas of historical shrub‐targeting herbicide application and (2) projected patterns of seasonal temperature and precipitation under climate change. In considering lek‐mating species in general, we recommend the use of dynamic SDMs for an improved understanding of factors influencing distributions through time. Our approach and related efforts represent an important step in forecasting distributions under projected scenarios of environmental change to assist the conservation of these species.

Trends in evergreen oak suitability from assembled species distribution models: assessing climate change in south-western Europe

“…In the last decades, SDMs have been erected like an efficient technic for improving the knowledge on species potential distribution (Hidalgo et al 2008;López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2014;Báez et al 2016;Hemeri et al 2016;López-Tirado & Hidalgo 2016a;Sadoti et al 2016). Thus, they correlate the acknowledged current distribution of a given species with climatic conditions in the main; in other words, cartography of suitability is resulted from a list of explanatory variables (Mateo et al 2011;Mellert et al 2011).…”

Lesser prairie‐chicken population forecasts and extinction risks: An evaluation 5 years post–Catastrophic drought

“…We speculate that these changes in extirpation risk are likely linked to the effect of drought (near‐term habitat effects), and reduction in carrying capacity. The latter may be indicative of long‐term changes in landscape composition or effects of ongoing changes such as expanded energy development and expansion of conifer perches for predatory birds due to fire suppression, which is affecting space usable by prairie‐chickens (Ross et al , Sadoti et al , Spencer et al ). Thus, improvements in carrying capacity as the drought eased may have reduced the extirpation risk, but did not alleviate reductions in overall carrying capacity because of long‐term changes in available habitat.…”