Approaches to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression and priorities for financial security of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine

Abstract

Introduction. The authors have examined existing approaches to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression, certain aspects of the loss of Ukraine's economic potential, and plans for the post-war recovery and reconstruction, both national and with the participation of international partners. Problem Statement. Significant damage and destruction of infrastructure facilities are among serious consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict including significant reductions or negative values of the economic development pace , which leads to the aggravation of social problems and increased financial risks and threats. . The question of the need for legislative introduction of reliable diversified sources of financial support for the post-war recovery in Ukraine, taking into account all consequences of the military conflict in modern realities, is on the agenda. Purpose. To study approaches to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression and the priorities of financial support for post-war reconstruction in Ukraine, in particular, the determination of key areas, tasks, expected results of attracting international financial aid and prospects for further cooperation in accordance with state program documents. Methods. General scientific and special methods are used: analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, theoretical generalization and abstract-logical. Results. The analysis of one of the largest sources of assessment of the physical damage caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine, which is implemented on the basis of the reports of the “Russia will pay” project of the KSE Institute with the support of international partners, was carried out. It was found that these estimates are focused on the direct losses of the physical infrastructure of Ukraine as a result of the war and the assessment of the financial value of these losses, without estimating total losses for the economy of Ukraine. The first independent and objective report on Ukraine's losses from the war and the need for reconstruction as of June 1, 2022, prepared by the Government of Ukraine together with the World Bank, the European Commission (RDNA), was analyzed. The key legislative initiatives and the newly formed regulatory and legal principles for the organization of damage audits, compensation for losses due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and financing of recovery and post-war reconstruction were studied, as well as the main initiatives in the context of strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure. New and existing sources of financing for post-war reconstruction were analyzed, including key programs of the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, started before the full-scale invasion of Russia, but quickly adapted to the current situation in order to continue funding as soon as possible. Conclusions. The ability of Ukraine to function effectively within the framework of international financial cooperation and to fulfill the relevant obligations, as well as to ensure the rapid post-war recovery of economic, infrastructural, and humanitarian potential, can only be guaranteed through cooperation with international partners. Strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure should become one of the components of the basis that will ensure the development of transparent public administration, which will contribute to overcoming the challenges and threats facing Ukraine, long-term economic growth, economic security in general, and also enable integration into the European economic space.

An in-Depth Analysis of Military Casualties: Predicting Russian Losses in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

“…This literature review underscores the significance of time series forecasting in understanding and predicting military casualties, exploring various methodologies across classical and machine learning approaches [11]. Techniques like ARIMA and machine learning methods such as SVR, KNN, and LSTM are evaluated, with simulation studies identified as valuable tools for informed decision-making [12]. Legislative attempts related to damage audits and compensation are discussed in addressing the repercussions of military activities, particularly in the context of Russian aggression [13].…”