Are macroeconomic forecasters optimists or pessimists? A reassessment of survey based forecasts

Rong, Huang; Pılbeam, Keith; Pouliot, William

doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2022.03.012

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 15 publications

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“…According to the existing research results and historical data of various factors, assume the following data [8,9,10,11] . The index parameters are shown in Table 1.…”

Section: Research Methods 21 Data Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Development Status and Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecast of Power Industry in Guangxi

et al. 2023

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This paper uses the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning(leap) system model to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of the power industry and calculate the carbon peak platform period of the power industry in Guangxi, which is based on the development status of the power industry and the energy and power development plan in Guangxi during the "14th Five-Year Plan". The results show that the power structure of Guangxi is at an excellent level in the country. In 2021, the installed proportion of clean energy is 55.1% (the national average level of 44.7% in 2020), and the proportion of thermal power generation is 55.7% (the national average level of 68.5% in 2020). With the strong economic recovery , the demand for electricity in Guangxi will continue to increase. By 2025 and 2030, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 2.9 ×1012 kW•h and 3.7×1012 kW•h, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of about 7.1% and 5.3%. The installed power generation capacity will reach 9.4 ×107 kW and 1.5 ×108 kW, respectively. The power generation will reach 3.0 ×1012 kW•h and 4.2×1012 kW•h electricity, respectively. However, Due to the influence of resource endowment, meteorological conditions, energy storage technology and other constraints on non-fossil energy power generation, it is difficult to achieve large-scale replacement of traditional energy power generation in a short term. It is estimated that coal power production will account for 45% and 30% of the total power generation respectively in Guangxi by 2025 and 2030. Coal power will continue to be the main provider of power security for a long time in the future. Therefore, according to the current situation of power development planning, it is estimated that the carbon emission of Guangxi will reach 9.2×107 t by 2030. The carbon peak platform period of power generation industry will appear in 2029 to 2032, with a peak value of 1.1 × 108 t.

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“…According to the existing research results and historical data of various factors, assume the following data [8,9,10,11] . The index parameters are shown in Table 1.…”

Section: Research Methods 21 Data Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Development Status and Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecast of Power Industry in Guangxi

et al. 2023

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Does democracy matter in banking performance? Exploring the linkage between democracy, economic freedom and banking performance in the European Union member states

Socol,

Iuga

2023

Int. J Fin Econ

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Literature on the effects of socio‐political factors and the quality of political‐economic institutions on banking performance is scarce and mixed. To contribute to this literature, this study analyzes whether democracy and economic freedom affect the banking sector in European Union member countries. We provide empirical evidence of the influence of democracy and economic freedom on banking performance using a sample of 27 countries from 2001 to 2020, and accounting‐based return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) as performance measures. A dynamic model (system GMM) was used to address issues such as heteroscedasticity, serial correlation, and endogeneity. These findings indicate that democracy is positively associated with banking performance, whereas economic freedom negatively affects it in the sample countries. Additionally, this study adds to the growing literature on the relationship between control variables (macroeconomic determinants, bank‐specific factors, or a country's legislative regime) and banking performance. This study is practically valuable for managers, investors, stakeholders, policymakers, and academicians.

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Survey data, expectations and the macroeconomy

Beckmann¹,

Czudaj²,

Yılmaz³

2023

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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Are macroeconomic forecasters optimists or pessimists? A reassessment of survey based forecasts

Cited by 4 publications

References 15 publications

Development Status and Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecast of Power Industry in Guangxi

Development Status and Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecast of Power Industry in Guangxi

Does democracy matter in banking performance? Exploring the linkage between democracy, economic freedom and banking performance in the European Union member states

Survey data, expectations and the macroeconomy

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