Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

Ülengin, Füsun; Özaydın, Özay; Ülengin, Burç; Kopp, Andreas; Önsel, Şule; Kabak, Özgür; Aktaş, Emel

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.07.002

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The complementarity of land components for air and maritime transport is evident by the strongly significant interaction terms in 4, except for the substitution between road and air. This result is expected by the predominance of two transport types for imports, e.g., maritime and air transport with a share of 63% and 14% in 2019, respectively (Turkstat, 2021). Moreover, the positive interaction reveal complementarity between these modes as in exports.…”

Section: Modal Interaction Analysis For Importsmentioning

confidence: 73%

Trade Benefits of Transport Network Expansion Policy in Türkiye

Şahan

TUNA

2023

Fiscaoeconomia

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Over the past two decades, Türkiye has undertaken considerable investment in transport infrastructure to build a well-developed transport network and to get integrated into global supply chains. This study aims to evaluate long-term trade expansion benefits of transport network investment in Türkiye to derive recommendations for transport and industrial policy. For this purpose, gravity models of trade are estimated for exports and imports with infrastructure investments in various transport modes as the main explanatory variables; as well as other independent variables involving determinants of bilateral trade flow, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development. In addition, control variables for Türkiye and for partner countries are involved in the models to obtain robust results. A main inference from the analysis entails that transport infrastructure investment acts as a driver for import growth rather than export expansion. As another important conclusion, transport infrastructure investment should be carried out with all transport types considered, based on a long-term transport policy scheme with special attention on road and rail infrastructure. Moreover, transport modes should be integrated to enhance network and connectivity of the overall logistics system. As a final remark, a widespread practice of multimodal and intermodal transportation can be achieved by a holistic integration policy of transport modes.

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Section: Modal Interaction Analysis For Importsmentioning

confidence: 73%

Trade Benefits of Transport Network Expansion Policy in Türkiye

Şahan

TUNA

2023

Fiscaoeconomia

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“…Although only weak short-run causality between highway infrastructure and exports is detected, no evidence of long-run association between road stock, trade gains and economic growth is found. In Ref [6], coherence of Turkey's investment in road infrastructure is analyzed by estimated demand for the routes through gravity models and scenario analysis with the aim of ex-post investment evaluation rather than an inspection of economic benefits. The demand predictions for passenger and freight transportation for the selected highway projects reveal the superiority of some road investments over others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Policy Implications on Transport Infrastructure–Trade Dynamics: Case of Turkey

Şahan

Tuna

2021

Logistics

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Transportation has a mediating position in international trade formation and in the past few decades, Turkey has invested substantially in transport infrastructure to increase connectivity and integration in global transport networks. Still, limited research has been conducted to understand channels and scope of the transport infrastructure development impacts on foreign trade. The objective of this study is to evaluate short-run and long-run causal linkages between transport infrastructure, exports and imports in Turkey for the period between 1987–2019. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is developed considering road and rail transport infrastructure components as well as information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure as a complement to quality transport networks. Results suggest that a speedy road network serves as a locomotive in trade development whereas rail infrastructure can be beneficial if a holistic connectivity plan is developed in a long-term perspective to improve multimodal transportation under a comprehensive, sustained transport policy. Besides, benefits of transport infrastructure investment can be realized in favor of export promotion rather than import growth if a comprehensive policy is followed. In that way transport infrastructure investment would become a stronger instrument to accomplish export competitiveness.

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“…Considering the consequences, costs and irreversibility of wrong decisions (e.g. infrastructure misinvestment, unfocused policy agendas), it becomes evident that the costs of compiling reliable data are rather low compared to the consequences of poor project planning [5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative methods in European road freight transport statistics : A pilot study

Fürst

Oberhofer

Vogelauer

et al. 2019

Journal of Statistics and Management Systems

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By using innovative methods, such as the automated transfer of corporate electronic data to National Statistical Institutions, official transport data can be significantly improved in terms of reliability, costs and the burden on respondents. In this paper, we show that the automated compilation of statistical reports is possible and feasible. Based on previous findings, a new method and tool were developed in cooperation with two business partners from the logistics sector in Austria. The results show that the prototype could successfully be implemented at the partner companies. Improved data quality can lead to more reliable analyses in various fields. Compared to actual volumes of investments into transport, the costs of transport statistics are limited. By using the new and innovative data collection techniques, these costs can even be reduced in the long run; at the same time, the risk of bad investments and wrong decisions caused by analyses relying on poor data quality can be reduced. This results in a substantial value for business, research, the economy and the society.

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Are road transportation investments in line with demand projections? A gravity-based analysis for Turkey

Cited by 7 publications

References 12 publications

Trade Benefits of Transport Network Expansion Policy in Türkiye

Trade Benefits of Transport Network Expansion Policy in Türkiye

Policy Implications on Transport Infrastructure–Trade Dynamics: Case of Turkey

Innovative methods in European road freight transport statistics : A pilot study

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