Are Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change Supported by Climate Records? A Case Study of Lower Gweru in Semiarid Central Zimbabwe

Abstract

The livelihoods of the majority of people in semiarid areas of developing nations are based on rain-fed agriculture. In the wake of climate variability and change, communities in these regions are the most vulnerable because of their limited capacities to adapt to environmental changes. Smallholder farmers in the study area, Lower Gweru in central Zimbabwe, ascertain that they have observed changes in some rainfall and temperature patterns. These changes include higher temperatures, an increased number of seasons without enough rainfall, and an increased frequency of droughts and lengths of dry spells. The aim of this study was to find out whether farmers’ perceptions are supported by mean and extreme event trends in observed historical climate data. Gweru Thornhill meteorological data were analyzed for significant trends. The analysis showed that temperatures are increasing significantly, consistent with farmers’ observations that temperatures are getting hotter. This study revealed that farmer perceptions on rainfall were not consistent with historical climatic trends. Thus, farmers in the Lower Gweru area may not be a very reliable source of long-term rainfall trends.

Twentieth Century Precipitation Trends in the Upper Mzingwane Sub-catchment of the Northern Limpopo Basin, Zimbabwe

“…Such a drying trend is consistent with previous ndings for other parts of southern Africa e.g. (Daron 2014;Morioka et al 2015;Scholes et al 2015) and Zimbabwe in general (Brazier 2015;Makuvaro et al 2017;Nangombe et al 2018). However, while there is generally decreasing total annual precipitation (mean = -0.54mm/annum), this is accompanied by increased precipitation intensity (marked by increasing maximum 1-day precipitation amounts (RX1Day)) over most of the study region.…”

Assessing Smallholder Farmers’ Perception on Climate Variability in Relation to Climatological Evidence: A Case Study of Benguene in the Sudanian Zone of Mali

“…perception. This result is in agreement with studies conducted in Ghana (Amadou et al, 2015, Asare-Nuamah), Niger (Assoumana et al, 2016), Nigeria (Ayanlade et al, 2017) and central Zimbabwe (Makuvaro et al, (2018). On the contrary Ouedraogo et al, (2010); Ulrich et al, (2015); Bambara, et al, (2016) reported that farmers perceive changes in climatic variables such as a decrease in rainfall, an increase in temperature, the late or early start of the season and the short duration of the season, etc., which was in contradiction with our results.…”

“…Therefore, farmers in Benguene may not be a reliable source of long-term changes in rainfall, but they could provide reliable information on inter-and intra-seasonal rainfall changes. Authors such as Makuvaro et al, (2018) suggest studies on comparisons of perceptions and trends based on smaller time scales rather than long periods. This is particularly important when such studies seek communities' responses.…”

Why apple orchards are shifting to the higher altitudes of the Himalayas?

“…The impact of climate variability on crop production of a region has been studied by observing local perceptions in different regions of the globe [30,31]. In the present study, we also visited different sites for verification of change on the ground and recorded narratives of local farmers on the changes.…”