Are Some Forecasters Really Better than Others? A Note*

Abstract

In this paper, we use bootstrap approach to test the null hypothesis that all forecasters in the U.S. Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have equal ability. Our bootstrap procedure captures any potential cross-sectional and serial correlation in the forecast errors while preserving the unbalanced nature of the panel data. Once we account for the presence of cross-sectional and serial correlation in the forecast errors while resampling, we find convincing evidence that some individuals really are better than others-this is in sharp contrast to the findings of D' Agostino et al. (2012).