As Time Goes By in Argentina: Economic Opportunities and Challenges of the Demographic Transition

Gragnolati, Michele; Rofman, Rafael; Apella, Ignacio; Troiano, Sara

doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0530-1

Cited by 13 publications

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“…These results match those presented by Amarante and Collace (2016) for Uruguay and by Apella and Troiano (2015) for Argentina: although an increase in women's labor market participation would increase overall labor market participation rates, the downward trend will prevail. However, the decline would be smoother, and the delay would expand the first dividend period, creating more opportunities to accumulate capital before the onset of the demographic tax period.…”

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Once the first dividend period has come to an end, if the capital necessary to trigger a second dividend has not been accumulated, the only way to keep economic growth from faltering is to sustain the size of the labor force. The adverse labor market effects of aging could be minimized if the elderly population delays retirement and women increase their participation (Apella and Troiano 2015).…”

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are several reasons for lower labor force participation on the part of younger people, not all of them economic. Extended formal education, for instance, increases the size of human capital in the medium term (Apella and Troiano 2015).…”

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Argentina and Chile display a negative and significant correlation between the decision not to continue in the labor market and the decision to apply for pension benefits. This correlation is higher among individuals who expect a high pension benefit (Apella and Troiano 2015;Apella et al 2019) Likewise, the age of entry and retirement from the labor market, both of which increased between 1995 and 2015, may continue to change in the future, especially if pension systems generate the right incentives for older workers to stay in the labor market, as discussed in chapter 7. On the demand side, early retirement in some developed countries is often not voluntary, and may be promoted or even required by employers or the state (Dorn and Sousa-Poza 2004).…”

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

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When We're Sixty-Four: Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America

Rofman¹,

Apella²

2020

Self Cite

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Books in this series are published to communicate the results of Bank research, analysis, and operational experience with the least possible delay. The extent of language editing varies from book to book. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

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Section: Demography and The Labor Marketsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Demography and The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

When We're Sixty-Four: Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America

Rofman¹,

Apella²

2020

Self Cite

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“…Sin embargo, el dividendo demográfico implica únicamente una posibilidad, una supuesta ventana de oportunidad; el término fue aplicable anteriormente para los países más ricos del planeta, pero en la práctica es inaplicable para muchas naciones que se encuentran actualmente en esta cuarta fase, ya que muchas de ellas presentan altas tasas de subempleo y de desempleo en relación a su población económicamente activa, razón por la cual no siempre se puede reclamar los beneficios positivos que este dividendo debería traer a las sociedades. Brasil (Turra & Queiroz, 2005), Argentina (Gragnolati, Rofman, Apella & Troiano, 2015), México (Partida-Bush, 2004) y muchos estados de América Latina se encuentran hoy en su dividendo demográfico desde el punto de vista de sus estructuras poblacionales con un bajo nivel de dependencia; sin embargo, en la práctica y desde la visión económica tienen elevados niveles de dependencia y de pobreza debido a problemas relacionados con la falta de oportunidades laborales (Cruces, Fields, Viollaz & Jaume, 2017).…”

Section: El Dividendo Demográficounclassified

Consecuencias económicas en el Producto Interno Bruto del decrecimiento poblacional en los países que atraviesan la fase final de su transición demográfica

Correa

Cueva

Gonzalez

2017

MSKN

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Consecuencias económicas en el Producto Interno Bruto del decrecimiento poblacional en los países que atraviesan la fase final de su transición demográfica RESUMENLos países se han caracterizado por crecer demográficamente desde fines del siglo 18 hasta las últimas décadas del siglo 20, cuando algunas naciones más bien empezaron a estabilizarse e incluso a disminuir sus poblaciones, pasando por diferentes etapas del modelo de transición demográfica, debido a que las tasas de fertilidad son menores a los niveles de reemplazo de la población, ocasionando preocupación a los gobiernos que están conviviendo con este fenómeno, sobre todo en relación al posible declive de sus economías. Este estudio demuestra que si las economías logran mantenerse estables, entonces las consecuencias económicas del detrimento poblacional, pese a ser negativas desde el punto de vista macro, son positivas para los hogares, causando que el subempleo y desempleo disminuyan, generándose mejores ingresos y más consumo para las familias; y mientras más pronto los gobiernos se preparen y ajusten sus economías, las sociedades podrán adaptarse mejor a este cambio demográfico que inevitablemente ocurrirá en todas partes, a medida que avance el proceso de urbanización durante este siglo y el próximo. Palabras clave: Modelo de transición demográfico, tasas de fertilidad, inmigración, despoblamiento, producto interno bruto. ABSTRACTCountries have been characterized by demographic growth since the end of the 18th century until the last decades of the 20th century, when some nations began to stabilize and even decrease their populations. Those countries went through the different stages of the demographic transition model, because fertility rates decreased below the replacement levels of the population, causing concern to the governments of those countries, especially in relation to the possible decline of their economies. This study shows that rather the economic consequences of a decline in population, despite being negative from the macro point of view, are positive for households, if the economies manage to remain stable. The dwindling down of the population shall cause underemployment and unemployment to decrease, generating better income and more consumption for families. The sooner governments prepare and adjust their economies, societies will be better prepared to adapt to this demographic change that will inevitably occur everywhere, as the urbanization process advances during this century and the next one.

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The Politics of Demography in Unequal Societies: Argentina and Brazil Compared

Wachs

Cavalcanti

Galeazzi

2021

Global Political Demography

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As Time Goes By in Argentina: Economic Opportunities and Challenges of the Demographic Transition

Cited by 13 publications

References 0 publications

When We're Sixty-Four: Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America

When We're Sixty-Four: Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America

Consecuencias económicas en el Producto Interno Bruto del decrecimiento poblacional en los países que atraviesan la fase final de su transición demográfica

The Politics of Demography in Unequal Societies: Argentina and Brazil Compared

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