We propose alternative methods to project pension rights and implement them in Chile and Uruguay and partially in Argentina. We use incomplete work histories databases from the social security administrations to project entire lifetime work histories. We first fit linear probability and duration models of the contribution status and dynamic linear models of the income level. We then run Monte Carlo simulations to project work histories and compute pension rights. According to our results, significant swathes of the population would not access to fundamental pension benefits at age 65, if the current eligibility rules were strictly enforced.

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The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.