Aseismic transient during the 2010–2014 seismic swarm: evidence for longer recurrence of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in the Pollino gap (Southern Italy)?

Cheloni, D.; D’Agostino, N.; Selvaggi, G.; Avallone, A.; Fornaro, G.; Giuliani, Roberta; Reale, Diego; Sansosti, E.; Tizzani, Pietro

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00649-z

Cited by 30 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The historic record reports large damaging earthquakes in all segments of the Apennines, except in the Pollino-Mercure segment. For this reasons, it is often considered a "seismic gap" (Cheloni et al, 2017;Chiarabba et al, 2016;Cinti et al, 2002;Valensise et al, 1994), though geologic evidence suggests surfacerupturing earthquakes as recently as the Middle Ages (Cinti et al, 1997(Cinti et al, , 2002Michetti et al, 1997Michetti et al, , 2000Tertulliani & Cucci, 2014). The Pollino-Mercure area is clearly seismically active though it seems to be particularly prone to intense low-magnitude earthquake swarms (Chiarabba et al, 2016;Guerra et al, 2015).…”

Section: Swarms Of Low-magnitude Seismicity In the Pollino-mercure Armentioning

confidence: 99%

The Culmination of an Oblique Time‐Transgressive Arc Continent Collision: The Pollino Massif Between Calabria and the Southern Apennines, Italy

Filice

Seeber

2019

Tectonics

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The Pollino Massif is the most southeastern outcrop of the Apennine core. It marks the transition between Apenninic shortening and extension, respectively, SE and NW of the massif and is also the cusp of a southeastward plunge that characterizes the submerged Apennines. The SE limit of NE‐SW extension merges with the east limit of Tyrrhenian extension in Calabria. This strategic position is expected to transition southeastward in the progressive oblique collision of the Calabrian forearc and Apulia. We test this hypothesis using published results and new field data. The time‐transgressive emergence of basins on the Apennine thrust wedge is quantitatively consistent with the ESE rollback of the Calabrian arc. Specifically, a thrust‐normal slip reversal on a SW dipping fault is responsible for the tectonic collapse that lead to the Mercure Basin along strike NW of the Pollino Massif and to an east‐to‐west reversal of drainage. This reversal is timed by an intermediate stage of trapped internal drainage with Mid‐Pleistocene lacustrine sedimentation, but it may young to SE as the normal displacement on the border fault decreases gradually to SE and vanishes near the apex of the massif. On the SE side of the massif, contractional tectonics persists at least into the Mid‐Pleistocene and likely later, while NE‐SW extension is absent. Prominent normal faults in that area accommodate range‐parallel extension and are coupled with the thrust faults. The combination of longitudinal extension with a counterclockwise rotation of hanging‐wall units and thrust directivity can account for the final setting in the Apennines.

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Section: Swarms Of Low-magnitude Seismicity In the Pollino-mercure Armentioning

confidence: 99%

The Culmination of an Oblique Time‐Transgressive Arc Continent Collision: The Pollino Massif Between Calabria and the Southern Apennines, Italy

Filice

Seeber

2019

Tectonics

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“…Based on deformation measurements, some TES have been linked to Slow Slip Events (SSEs) (Cheloni et al, 2017, Lohman and McGuire, 2007, Vallèe et al, 2013, Villegas-Lanza et al, 2016. In addition, several destructive earthquakes, including the 2009 L'Aquila, the 2011 Tohoku and the 2014 Iquique earthquakes, followed TES linked to or driven by SSEs (Borghi et al, 2016, Kato et al, 2012, Schurr et al, 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This hypothesis is difficult to test, due to a lack of data on TES spanning different moment scales and tectonic settings. Another issue is that seismicity catalogs are generally not long enough to consider recurrence times of TES, which makes it difficult to assess their role in the long-term tectonic strain budget (Passarelli et al, 2015, Cheloni et al, 2017. Usually, historical information on earthquake swarms is not even included in the historical earthquake catalogs (Tertulliani and Cucci, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaling and spatial complementarity of tectonic earthquake swarms

Passarelli

Rivalta

Jónsson

et al. 2018

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

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Tectonic earthquake swarms (TES) often coincide with aseismic slip and sometimes precede damaging earthquakes. In spite of recent progress in understanding the significance and properties of TES at plate boundaries, their mechanics and scaling are still largely uncertain. Here we evaluate several TES that occurred during the past 20 years on a transform plate boundary in North Iceland. We show that the swarms complement each other spatially with later swarms discouraged from fault segments activated by earlier swarms, which suggests efficient strain release and aseismic slip. The fault area illuminated by earthquakes during swarms may be more representative of the total moment release than the cumulative moment of the swarm earthquakes. We use these findings and other published results from a variety of tectonic settings to discuss general scaling properties for TES. The results indicate that the importance of TES in releasing tectonic strain at plate boundaries may have been underestimated.

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“…As for off-fault deformation, it is clear that part of the missing strain rate is seismic and is possibly associated with a few faults that are unknown to the used databases. It follows that assuming c = 0 is wrong by definition, and even more so in regions like Calabria where significant aseismic creep has been recently documented on normal faults (Cheloni et al, 2017). The long-term seismic coupling c depends on the variable occurrence of earthquakes or afterslip and aseismic slip or slow slip events (Avouac, 2015).…”

Section: Seismicity Forecasts Versus the Earthquake Record: Possible mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The long-term seismic coupling c depends on the variable occurrence of earthquakes or afterslip and aseismic slip or slow slip events (Avouac, 2015). It follows that assuming c = 0 is wrong by definition, and even more so in regions like Calabria where significant aseismic creep has been recently documented on normal faults (Cheloni et al, 2017). Assuming a realistic upper limit for the long-term seismic coupling of Calabrian extensional faults (c = 0.6-0.8) results in a plausible range of 7 km < 〈cz〉 < 10 km.…”

Section: Seismicity Forecasts Versus the Earthquake Record: Possible mentioning

confidence: 99%

A “Geodetic Gap” in the Calabrian Arc: Evidence for a Locked Subduction Megathrust?

Carafa

Kastelic

Bird

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Subduction of old Ionian seafloor beneath the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy) is the geological process with the greatest mass flux in the central Mediterranean, yet its seismogenic behavior is largely obscured. No unambiguous evidence of subduction‐related earthquakes exists in historical times, and local GPS velocities indicate very low strain rates. Nevertheless, the region hosted some of the deadliest normal‐faulting earthquakes of the entire Mediterranean basin. We show that the low strain rates recorded in southern Calabria can be reconciled with the regional vigorous seismic moment release by assuming high interseismic coupling but low seismic coupling of the subduction interface. The alternative scenario of steadily creeping subduction cannot be ruled out but requires the historical seismicity record to be dismissed as unrepresentative. We refer to the peculiar spatial pattern of short‐term strain rates in southern Calabria as a “geodetic gap” resulting from destructive interference between upper‐plate extension and temporary compression due to locking along the subduction interface. Seismic hazard modelers must understand that within such gaps, the long‐term seismic hazard is greater than that suggested by the low geodetic strain rates.

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Aseismic transient during the 2010–2014 seismic swarm: evidence for longer recurrence of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in the Pollino gap (Southern Italy)?

Cited by 30 publications

References 45 publications

The Culmination of an Oblique Time‐Transgressive Arc Continent Collision: The Pollino Massif Between Calabria and the Southern Apennines, Italy

The Culmination of an Oblique Time‐Transgressive Arc Continent Collision: The Pollino Massif Between Calabria and the Southern Apennines, Italy

Scaling and spatial complementarity of tectonic earthquake swarms

A “Geodetic Gap” in the Calabrian Arc: Evidence for a Locked Subduction Megathrust?

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