“…Because the initial status is often unknown, a positive slope may be thought to represent either a recovery from drought (Vicente‐Serrano et al, ), greening trends as a function of both climatic and nonclimatic factors (Xiao & Moody, ), a response to other disturbances such as fire events (Diaz‐Delgado, Salvador, & Pons, ; Gouveia, Bastos, Trigo, & DaCamara, ; Riaño et al, ), or a permanent land‐use change generating higher primary productivity than the previous situation, such as afforestation (Li, ; Vasallo, Dieguez, Garbulsky, Jobbágy, & Paruelo, ). A negative slope, on the other hand, might represent a downwards trend due to either a long‐lasting drought (Anyamba & Tucker, ), more abrupt shocks such as volcanic ash fallout (de Schutter et al, ), or permanent disturbances such as land use change, for example, resulting in a decrease of irrigated areas (Gumma et al, ). Both phases and regime shifts are confounded in the same process when NDVI changes are depicted by a linear trend.…”