Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

Abstract

For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1-888-ASK-USGS (1-888-275-8747).For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/.Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Executive SummaryClimate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability-sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised "Phase I" of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem's distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem. Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised "Phase II" of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vege...

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Livelihood and Food Security of Small-Scale Fishers in Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe

“…This is the case with households within Sanyathi fishing basin that are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. Costanza et al (2016) stated that natural ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change and have the potential to be strongly affected by it. For instance, water resources are climate sensitive and changes in climatic variables alter marine physical and biological processes, resulting in fish habitat loss and low fish productivity (Barange and Perry, 2009).…”

Growth, proportion, and distribution pattern of longleaf pine across southeastern forests and disturbance types: A change assessment for the period 1997-2018

“…The vulnerability of coastal ecosystems of the Southeast has increased in recent years because of the impacts of climate change through changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions [ 9 ]. The wet longleaf pine savanna and Flatwoods of the Central Atlantic Coastal Plain is one of the most sensitive ecosystems to climate change in North America [ 10 ]. Many large-scale efforts for conservation and restoration of existing longleaf pine stands are currently underway, especially on federal and state lands, including on several national forests [ 3 ].…”

Shifts in flowering phenology in response to spring temperatures in eastern Tennessee

“…This pattern is likely explained by the fact that, although spring temperature is highly variable among years, it does not appear to have increased appreciably since the latter half of the 20 th century (Figure 2B). Further, spring temperature has not changed substantially in the southeastern United States over the 20th century as a whole (Costanza et al, 2016). Interestingly, the most appreciable changes in temperature in the southeastern United States have occurred during the summer (+2ºC since 1980, Costanza et al, 2016), a time of year that should not affect spring flowering.…”

“…Further, spring temperature has not changed substantially in the southeastern United States over the 20th century as a whole (Costanza et al, 2016). Interestingly, the most appreciable changes in temperature in the southeastern United States have occurred during the summer (+2ºC since 1980, Costanza et al, 2016), a time of year that should not affect spring flowering. Although we did not detect greater increases in summer temperature than in spring temperature in our study region, the average temperature difference between the two ecoregions is greater in the summer than in the spring (Figure 2C).…”