Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach

Billmeier, Andreas; Nannicini, Tommaso

doi:10.1162/rest_a_00324

Cited by 422 publications

(313 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Nonetheless, we note that similar values have been found in the literature [e.g. Billmeier Nannicini and 2013] and that the RMSPE is always larger for Poland and smaller for Albania.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Synthetic ‘real socialism’: a counterfactual analysis of political and economic liberalizations

Petrarca

Ricciuti

2015

Economics and Business Review EBR

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ARTICLES Why did the knowledge transition occur in the West and not in the East Economics and Business ReviewEconomics and Business Review, Vol. 1 (15), No. 1, 2015: 69-88 DOI 10.18559/ebr.2015 Synthetic 'real socialism': a counterfactual analysis of political and economic liberalizations 1 Ilaria Petrarca, 2 Roberto Ricciuti 2 Abstract : We evaluate the effect of the 1989 shock over economic development in four Eastern European countries. We apply a counterfactual approach and define the shock alternatively as the trigger for economic openness, political competition, or both. The main result is an effect of economic freedom larger than the one of democratization. In Poland and Bulgaria we find a positive impact of economic freedom, whilst in Bulgaria there is also a smaller effect of democratization. In Albania, after an initial recession, economic freedom helps recovery. Finally Romania does not show any robust effect.

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“…Nonetheless, we note that similar values have been found in the literature [e.g. Billmeier Nannicini and 2013] and that the RMSPE is always larger for Poland and smaller for Albania.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Synthetic ‘real socialism’: a counterfactual analysis of political and economic liberalizations

Petrarca

Ricciuti

2015

Economics and Business Review EBR

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“…The literature on the growth drivers and predictors of GDP components is immense. Therefore, in line with the synthetic counterfactual analyses of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), Billmeier and Nannicini (2013), as well as Campos et al (2013), the primary covariates chosen follow growth predictors of Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995). In addition, a few other variables suggested by the literature for the various components are included, such as demographic measures of population shares above 65 and below 14, as well as the real exchange rate.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member

Gyoerk

2017

Open Econ Rev

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The result of the decision whether to join the European Monetary Union, an irreversible policy choice for several European Union members, presents potentially significant costs and benefits. With a focus on the largest EU economy outside of the euro, Sweden, this paper applies the novel synthetic control method of estimation to evaluate whether there are costs or benefits associated with EMU membership in terms of various aspects of economic performance and how these have developed from 1999 to 2015. Findings indicate that Sweden would have borne non-negligible costs from currency union membership, exemplified by around 10% lower productivity, exports, investment, and consumption, and 8% greater government expenditure and imports on a yearly basis since the introduction of the euro, leading to significant cumulative reductions in potential economic activity. The robust results suggest costs may be persisting and in some cases growing in magnitude.

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“…To expand the donor pool, Donohue et al (2017) includes some adopting states in the donor pool based on the time of adoption. Similarly, Billmeier and Nannicini (2013) expands the donor pool for their application by restricting the analysis to countries with a sufficient number of countries which were not treated within 10 years of the treated country (meeting other restrictions as well).…”

Section: Benefits Even With a Binary Treatment Variablementioning

confidence: 99%

“…2 While initially motivated by case study applications, the CSSC estimator is often used in circumstances where multiple units are treated (e.g., Billmeier and Nannicini (2013); Donohue et al (2017); Powell et al (2015)) by applying the CSSC estimator to each treated unit and then aggregating the estimates. In this paper, I extend the synthetic control approach beyond case studies and applications where the treatment variable is represented by a single indicator variable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synthetic Control Estimation Beyond Case Studies: Does the Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?

Powell¹

2016

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R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND AbstractPanel data are often used in empirical work to account for fixed additive time and unit effects. The synthetic control estimator relaxes the assumption of additive effects for case studies in which a treated unit adopts a single policy. This paper generalizes the case study synthetic control estimator to estimate treatment effects for multiple discrete or continuous variables, jointly estimating the treatment effects and synthetic controls for each unit. Applying the estimator to study the disemployment effects of the minimum wage for teenagers, I estimate an elasticity of -0.44, substantially larger in magnitude than estimates generated using additive fixed effects.

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Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach

Cited by 422 publications

References 21 publications

Synthetic ‘real socialism’: a counterfactual analysis of political and economic liberalizations

Synthetic ‘real socialism’: a counterfactual analysis of political and economic liberalizations

Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member

Synthetic Control Estimation Beyond Case Studies: Does the Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?

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