Assessing Judgment Proficiency in Army Personnel

Abstract

Because of the unpredictable nature of the Army's current conflicts, operational requirements demand that Soldiers and leaders become proficient in military judgment and decision-making. This research presents an analysis of military judgment proficiency (MJP), which is judgment and decision-making in environments characterized by cultural, legal/ethical, and tactical complexity. We reviewed relevant literature in the areas of judgment, decision-making, and problem-solving to present a sound theoretical foundation for the MJP construct. We defined MJP as a complex skill and argued that in ambiguous, novel, rapidly changing situations in which there is limited time, information, and resources, Soldiers demonstrating MJP are more likely to select an effective course of action by appropriately identifying the nature of the situation, recognizing relevant situational factors, and forecasting the best overall outcome(s), given the situation. We describe also the initial stages of development of an assessment tool that will distinguish among Soldiers on MJP, and lay out future plans for test validation with Special Forces and non-Special Forces Soldiers.

The Importance of Cognitive Factors that Guide Escalation of Force Decisions

“…In these instances, Soldiers are required to infer the behavior of other individuals in a variety of operational contexts (day/night, cold/hot ambient temperatures, desolate/busy market places). However, if one is purposely concealing his/her behavior, a Soldier will be required to detect and interpret various nonverbal behaviors/cues (Yager, Strong, Roan, Matsumoto, & Metcalf, 2009;Rosenthal, et al, 2009) and/or use effective judgment (Foldes, Ferro, Vasilopulous, Cullen, Wisecarver, & Beal, 2010). Inferring causality in ambiguous situations is possible, but not foolproof; predicting the future with perfect accuracy is never possible (Taleb, 2007).…”

“…Rather, it provides a framework in which necessary information processing can occur and takes into account some of the potential biases innate within the human species. Foldes et al, (2010) reference a number of biases that can affect information acquisition and use. Further, the skills (Attentiveness, Recognition, and Action) proposed in Vowels (2010) as requisite for visual threat detection are not discussed here.…”

“…Taking this information and reviewing it along with ARI research already being conducted will greatly inform training on EOF procedures. Two lines of ARI research that could benefit training on EOF procedures involves interpreting non-verbal behavior and cues (Yager, Strong, Roan, Matsumoto, & Metcalf, 2009) and "military judgment proficiency" (MJP) or situational judgments (Foldes, et al, 2010).…”

“…Using support from prominent theoretical models of judgment and decision making (JDM), Foldes, et al, (2010) proposed military judgment proficiency (MJP) as a skill involving several factors that guide JDM in the operational environment, especially those that are complex (e.g., "novel, ambiguous, and rapidly changing"). It was argued to consist of four primary factors: (a) accurately framing decision problems, (b) detecting and interpreting important situational factors/cues, (c) forecasting the consequences, and (d) choosing an effective course of action based on the preceding three factors.…”

“…Military Judgment Proficiency (MJP) Impact. Foldes et al, (2010) contend that an important component of MJP is forecasting different courses of action. Training on MJP could directly affect the pre-decisional space model by affecting causal reasoning.…”