Assessing Numerical Model Skill at Simulating Coastal Flooding Using Field Observations of Deposited Debris and Photographic Evidence

Ferguson, Sean; Provan, Mitchel; Murphy, Enda; Bérubé, Dominique; Desrosiers, Marc; Robichaud, André; Kim, Joseph

doi:10.3390/w14040589

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 30 publications

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“…In previous studies, the HWMs have been used for the validation of a rapid storm surge forecasting framework 77 , and for the validation and comparison of event-based flood inundation mapping services 78 . In general, field measurements such as the HWMs used here are commonly taken as a complement to conventional water-level records in assessing model performance 79 .…”

Section: Data From Field Measurements (High Water Marks)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Vogt,

Treu,

Mengel

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Tropical cyclone-induced storm surge is a major coastal risk which will be further amplified by rising sea levels under global warming. The surge-induced floodplains are commonly modeled using a two-step approach by first producing coastal water levels which are, secondly, translated into inundated areas. Here, we evaluate an alternative approach where ocean dynamics and coastal inundation are modeled in a single step using the open-source solver GeoClaw that accounts for the event-specific variation over time of flood drivers. We compute the surge-induced flood extents for a global set of 71 storms from 2000-2019. We show that GeoClaw better reproduces satellite observations and high water marks than two different common modeling approaches that lack a process-based representation of inundation dynamics: a state-of-the-art two-step approach combining a full-scale ocean dynamics with a static (bathtub-type) inundation model and a lightweight approach that directly translates parametric tropical cyclone wind fields into inundation maps using statistical relationships. GeoClaw does not reach the performance of the ocean dynamics model in reproducing coastal water levels, but this deficiency is overcompensated by the dynamic modeling of inundated areas. The computational efficiency of the one-step approach opens up new perspectives for global assessments of coastal risks from tropical cyclones.

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Section: Data From Field Measurements (High Water Marks)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Vogt,

Treu,

Mengel

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones

Vogt,

Treu,

Mengel

et al. 2024

Commun Earth Environ

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Tropical cyclone-induced storm surge is a major coastal risk, which will be further amplified by rising sea levels under global warming. Here, we present a computational efficient, globally applicable modeling approach in which ocean surge and coastal inundation dynamics are modeled in a single step by the open-source solver GeoClaw. We compare our approach to two state-of-the-art, globally applicable approaches: (i) using a static inundation model to translate coastal water level time series from a full-scale physical ocean dynamics into inundated areas, and (ii) a fully static approach directly mapping wind fields to inundation areas. For a global set of 71 storms, we compare the modeled flooded areas to satellite-based floodplain observations. We find that, overall, the models have only moderate skill in reproducing the observed floodplains. GeoClaw performs better than the two other modeling approaches that lack a process-based representation of inundation dynamics. The computational efficiency of the presented approach opens up new perspectives for global assessments of coastal risks from tropical cyclones.

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Inundation Hazard Assessment in a Chinese Lagoon Area under the Influence of Extreme Storm Surge

Fu,

Li,

Cheng

et al. 2024

Water

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Assessing the hazard of inundation due to extreme storm surges in low-lying coastal areas and fragile ecosystems has become necessary and important. In this study, Xincun Lagoon and Li’an Lagoon in the Lingshui area of Hainan, China, were selected as the study areas, a high-resolution storm surge inundation numerical model was established, and the model reliability was tested. Based on data on typhoons affecting the study area from 1949 to 2022, the typhoon parameters for the extreme storm surge scenario were set and used for model numerical simulation and hazard assessment. The results revealed that in the extreme storm surge scenario, the average maximum tidal level, average maximum flow velocity, maximum inundation area, and average maximum inundation depth in the lagoon area were 2.29 m, 1.03 m/s, 14.8124 km2, and 1.20 m, respectively. Under the extreme storm surge scenario, a flow velocity of 2.0 m/s off the coasts of the lagoons could damage coastal aquaculture facilities, harbors, and ecosystems, while an inundation depth exceeding 1 m along the coasts of the lagoons could lead to the salinization of inundated land and severely affect the safety of residents. The hazard analysis of storm surge inundation in the land area of the lagoons revealed that hydrographic nets and coastal wetlands are the major land types inundated by storm surges, with the two accounting for approximately 70% of the total inundation area. According to China’s technical guidelines, the hazard levels of the inundated land area of the lagoons are mostly level 3 (moderate hazard) and level 2 (high hazard), together accounting for approximately 90% of the total inundation area. If the government deems the measures feasible based on strict estimation and scientific evaluation of economic benefits and disaster prevention, planting mangroves in coastal wetlands and/or establishing adjustable tidal barriers at narrow entrances to lagoons could minimize disaster losses.

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Assessing Numerical Model Skill at Simulating Coastal Flooding Using Field Observations of Deposited Debris and Photographic Evidence

Cited by 3 publications

References 30 publications

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones

Inundation Hazard Assessment in a Chinese Lagoon Area under the Influence of Extreme Storm Surge

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