Assessing River Basin Development Given Water‐Energy‐Food‐Environment Interdependencies

Geressu, Robel; Siderius, Christian; Harou, J. J.; Kashaigili, Japhet J.; Pettinotti, Laetitia; Conway, Declan

doi:10.1029/2019ef001464

Cited by 39 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…A single-water resource development scenario was implemented for each basin based on existing sectoral development plans from national governments, such that it represents ambitious but plausible development involving 'high stakes' investment decisions. (Note that (i) no climate adaptation is assumed in the development scenarios and (ii) analysis of water resources under a complex range of various development scenarios and water management portfolio options is explored in a companion paper, Geressu et al 2020). The Rufiji basin ( Fig.…”

Section: Step 3b: Water Resource Development Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To explore potential risks posed by climate change to water resource development, we define a set of indicative decision and planning-relevant water resource indicators. These are minimum performance requirements across the three main WEF sectors (Table 2) informed by consultation with stakeholders (Bhave et al 2020;Geressu et al 2020). Specifically the following:…”

Section: Assessing Climate Risk To Water Resource Development (Step 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

et al. 2021

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Uncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all of the climate models openly available perform equally well. However, there is no agreed ‘good practice’ on how to weight climate models. Nor is it clear to what extent model weighting can constrain uncertainty in decision-relevant climate quantities. We address this challenge, for climate projection information relevant to ‘high stakes’ investment decisions across the ‘water-energy-food’ sectors, using two case-study river basins in Tanzania and Malawi. We compare future climate risk profiles of simple decision-relevant indicators for water-related sectors, derived using hydrological and water resources models, which are driven by an ensemble of future climate model projections. In generating these ensembles, we implement a range of climate model weighting approaches, based on context-relevant climate model performance metrics and assessment. Our case-specific results show the various model weighting approaches have limited systematic effect on the spread of risk profiles. Sensitivity to climate model weighting is lower than overall uncertainty and is considerably less than the uncertainty resulting from bias correction methodologies. However, some of the more subtle effects on sectoral risk profiles from the more ‘aggressive’ model weighting approaches could be important to investment decisions depending on the decision context. For application, model weighting is justified in principle, but a credible approach should be very carefully designed and rooted in robust understanding of relevant physical processes to formulate appropriate metrics.

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Section: Step 3b: Water Resource Development Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessing Climate Risk To Water Resource Development (Step 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

et al. 2021

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“…We use climate impact simulation models developed and validated with local observations following discussion with agencies such as the Rufiji Basin Water Board and the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (Fig. 6.2, Geressu et al 2020;Siderius et al 2018). The infrastructure development plans are adapted from the present river basin development plan (WREM International 2015).…”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Rufiji River Basin is the largest and most economically important river basin in Tanzania, producing half of Tanzania's river flow, supplying water for 4.5 million people and for irrigation and livestock, generating roughly 80% of the country's hydropower and supporting environmental flows in several major wildlife parks (Siderius et al 2018). Alongside climate risk, there are important trade-offs between the effects of these developments across the water, energy, food and environment sectors (Duvail et al 2014;Geressu et al 2020; WWF International 2017) which require consideration given the challenge of achieving sustainable development in the basin.…”

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confidence: 99%

High Stakes Decisions Under Uncertainty: Dams, Development and Climate Change in the Rufiji River Basin

Siderius

Geressu

Todd

et al. 2021

Climate Risk in Africa

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The need to stress test designs and decisions about major infrastructure under climate change conditions is increasingly being recognised. This chapter explores new ways to understand and—if possible—reduce the uncertainty in climate information to enable its use in assessing decisions that have consequences across the water, energy, food and environment sectors. It outlines an approach, applied in the Rufiji River Basin in Tanzania, that addresses uncertainty in climate model projections by weighting them according to different skill metrics; how well the models simulate important climate features. The impact of different weighting approaches on two river basin performance indicators (hydropower generation and environmental flows) is assessed, providing an indication of the reliability of infrastructure investments, including a major proposed dam under different climate model projections. The chapter ends with a reflection on the operational context for applying such approaches and some of the steps taken to address challenges and to engage stakeholders.

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“…The application of the WEF nexus at a local scale provides another dimension to the applicability of the approach at various scales. Previous work has mostly focused on such at household [18], national [10], basin [19] and regional [1] scales. The application at local level is particularly essential as local government is at the front of service delivery of essential goods and services.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus as an Adaptation Strategy for Achieving Sustainable Livelihoods at a Local Level

et al. 2020

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The imbalance between resource availability and population increase requires transformative approaches to inform policy, decision-making and practice on coherent adaptation strategies for improved livelihoods and resilient communities. Nexus approaches are built on an understanding that natural processes do not operate in isolation within a system; hence, an emergent challenge in one unit obviously disturbs the whole system. This study applied an integrated water-energy-food (WEF) nexus analytical model to holistically assess resource availability, distribution, use and management at a local level in Sakhisizwe Local Municipality, South Africa. The aim was to inform strategies and guidelines on improving livelihoods of resource-poor rural communities. The calculated municipal composite index of 0.185, coupled with a deformed spider graph, represents a marginally sustainable resource management result. The analysis simplified the relationship between the intricately interlinked socio-ecological components and facilitated the identification of priority areas for intervention. The process provides pathways that steer resource use efficiencies and attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Unlike current linear approaches, integrated and transformative approaches like the WEF nexus provide a multidisciplinary platform for stakeholder engagement to sustainably enhance cross-sectoral coordination of resource management and harmonisation of policies and strategies. The WEF nexus approach is useful for informing decisions on improving livelihoods, enhancing resource securities, identifying priority areas for intervention and providing transformative pathways towards sustainable development.

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Assessing River Basin Development Given Water‐Energy‐Food‐Environment Interdependencies

Cited by 39 publications

References 86 publications

Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa

High Stakes Decisions Under Uncertainty: Dams, Development and Climate Change in the Rufiji River Basin

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus as an Adaptation Strategy for Achieving Sustainable Livelihoods at a Local Level

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